Hail in Minnesota, July 19, 2003

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1030 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

MAIN CHALLENGE IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTN/TONIGHT.

SMALL AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM DETROIT
LAKES TO PARK RAPIDS.  OTHERWISE..WEAK SFC TROUGH LOCATED ALONG NR A
HALLOCK-GRAND FORKS-FARGO LINE MOVING SLOWLY EAST.  LOTS OF
INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THIS TROUGH DUE TO WARM 85H TEMPS WITH
CAPES PROGGED OVER 3000 J/KG AND LI DROPPING TO -8 OR LOWER THIS
AFTN.  TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO MN WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE A BIT
LOWER (ETA SOUNDINGS SHOWS PKD CONVECTIVE TEMPS NR 85).  ISOLD TSRA
COULD RE-FIRE ALONG THIS TROUGH IN MN THIS AFTN AND COULD BE
ISOLATED SVR AS WELL.  FZLVL VERY HIGH GENERALLY 14000 TO 14500 EAST
OF TROUGH.

FOR ERN ND...WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE LIGHT NORTHERLY.  CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN SE ND WILL BE NEAR 90 AND IN THE MID 80S NORTH. NOT MUCH
FORMED ALONG AND WEST OF TROUGH IN CNTRL ND YESTERDAY SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY OVER ERN ND THIS AFTN.  WILL HOWEVER LEAVE
ISOLD TSRA IN FOR LATE THIS AFTN AFTER COORD WITH ABR/BIS JUST IN
CASE SOMETHING CAN BREAK WARM LAYER WITH AFTN HEATING.

WATER VAPOR/RUC ALL SHOWING 80KT 250MB JET MOVING EAST THRU SRN SASK
INTO SRN MANITOBA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.  REAL COOL FRONT WITH DRIER
PUCH BEHIND IT AND ASSOC WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO NW
ND THIS AFTN AND INTO ERN ND OVERNIGHT.  THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
BETTER CHC FOR SOME CONVECTION AS 85H WARM LAYER DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT THOUGH INSTABILITES ARE LESS.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION ISOLD SVR THIS AFTN AND WILL INCLUDE THIS
EVENING.  BUT COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT.

.FGF...NONE.

RIDDLE

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-191815-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1110 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTER
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BETWEEN 4 PM TODAY AND 3 AM
TONIGHT.

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THIS TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EAST OF THE RED
RIVER...WITH A FEW OF THESE POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.  THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION..A FEW OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE AS WELL WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A STRONGER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
AND INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.  THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND IS EXPECTED TO GIVE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.  A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/INDEX.HTML (ALL LOWER CASE)

RIDDLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
1145 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0300 AM    3 W MADDOCK               ND   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/19/03   BENSON

DTR