Damaging Wind in Minnesota, August 18, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
855 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2003

FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...THUNDER/RAIN CHANCES.

COMPLEX OVER NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MN REMAINS ACTIVE AT THIS
TIME.  PRETTY MUCH JUST BELOW ZERO LEVELS AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN.  LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR ASSOCIATED.  WORKING ON CAPE
ALONE...AND WIND SHOULD BE MAIN THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK WAA AND THETAE ADVECTION PROGGED TO MOVE
OVER CENTRAL EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST IN SCATTERED FASHION.
SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY CONTINUE AND WORK INTO EASTERN MN OVERNIGHT.
MUCH NEEDED RAIN A GOOD BET...BUT STORMS MOVING ALONG/ABOUT 35 KTS.
APPEARS VORT MAX MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE SYSTEM...NOW MASKED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT SIMILAR TO 18Z ETA.

THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CWA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH REDEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY/EVENING AS UPPER TROF
SWINGS CLOSER.

.MSP...NONE.

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-191100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
215 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDICES...CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 95 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH
OF MINNESOTA AND FAR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL PEAK BETWEEN 4
AND 5 PM. THESE PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES
IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...TO 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE
REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND FAR WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. CHECK THE LATEST HEAT ADVISORY STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD WORK THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
AFTER 5 PM. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE WEST
OF A LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA TO REDWOOD FALLS. THE STORMS WOULD WEAKEN
GRADUALLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT ENDING BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER
AT THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS HOT
AS TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.  HOWEVER...
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND PUSH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RE-FIRE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

BINAU/MBK