Damaging Winds in Nebraska, August 18, 2003

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
227 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2003

...CONVECTION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE MAIN CONCERN...

PATTERN HAS TRANSITIONED TO UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND LOW AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ONTO
THE PLAINS.  UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED FM MN TO LA.  AT THE
SFC... SFC LOW WAS CENTERED IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SFC
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

TSTMS HAD BEEN FAIRLY ISOLATED THIS MORNING...BUT COVERAGE HAS
GRADUALLY INCREASED DURING THE LAST HOUR AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY.
LAPS DATA INDICATES SFC BASED CAPES OF 3000-4000J/KG WITH LITTLE CIN
ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA.  SEVERE TSTM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
COUNTIES REMAINDER OF AFTN/EVE WITH WIND/HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AS INITIAL WAVE
DEPARTS...THEN CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF
NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE...AND INCREASING LLVL JET TONIGHT TO 30-40KTS.
TUESDAY SHLD BE SIMILAR TO THIS AFTN WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING IN
MORNING...THEN REDEVELOPING AFTN/EVE TIME FRAME.  TSTMS CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AIDED BY UPPER SUPPORT AS UPPER WAVE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS NEB/SD.  SFC BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST TUE NIGHT/WED WITH DRY AIR
ARRIVING WEST/EAST ALTHOUGH HAVE LINGERED POPS SOUTHEAST INTO WED
BEFORE TROF AXIS PASSES.

HGHTS RISE REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ONTO THE PLAINS.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

.GID...NONE.

FAY

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-191200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
208 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.  THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE AIDED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...
ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WHERE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM.  HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARILY HAZARDS.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...BUT MAY FORM AGAIN
TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.  WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK BUT THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME
MORE STRONGLY UNSTABLE THAN ON MONDAY.  THIS MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORITZ/FAY