Hail and Damaging Winds in Michigan, July 20, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1015 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003

MID MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A RATHER FLAT AND DISORGANIZED
PATTERN...WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTAINING SEVERAL
TROUGHS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  ONE SUCH TROUGH LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR/EASTERN UPPER MI...ANOTHER ONE RUNNING NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL UPPER MI/EASTERN WI.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF IT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WITH MORE SCATTERED ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.

AS CLEARING SPREADS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING THIS AFTERNOON.  DIURNAL HEATING
PLUS INCREASING DEW POINTS (PROBABLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON) WILL PUSH CAPES INTO THE 2000 J/KG RANGE.  12Z APX OBSERVED
HODOGRAPH AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS GENERALLY STRAIGHT LINES WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40KTS...SUPPORTIVE OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BACKED (SUCH AS
NEAR SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM WI).  GREATEST SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
TO BE SOUTH OF M-32 WHERE COMBINATION OF STRONGEST WIND FIELDS/
INSTABILITY WILL BE....AND HWO WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THAT
POTENTIAL.

.APX...NONE.

JPB

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-211100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1053 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SEVERE...WITH HAIL UP TO ONE AND
ONE HALF INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH
POSSIBLE.  THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GREATEST ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32 IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
INCLUDING TRAVERSE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...CADILLAC...AND GLADWIN...
WITH THE MAIN THREAT OCCURRING BETWEEN 1 PM AND 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/APX (ALL LOWER CASE)

JPB