Hail and Damaging Winds in Michigan, August 2, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1049 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2003

CLOSED 500 MB LOW IS HOLDING OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN.
AREAS OF FOG ARE LIFTING INTO A LOW CU DECK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MODIFIED 12Z APX
SOUNDING FOR 81/64 SHOWS 1900 J/KG OF CAPE...LIS AROUND -4 AND PWS
OF 1.10 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS ARE VERY WEAK (5 KTS AT
850 MB AND 15 KTS AT 500 MB) AND SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE HARD TO
COME BY. WILL HAVE TO RELY ON ANY LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THAT
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR FOCUS COUPLED WITH THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS
AT THIS POINT...BUT IF ANY DO REACH SEVERE LIMITS THESE WILL BE OF
THE PULSE/VERY SHORT-LIVED VARIETY.

GOING FORECAST HANDLES THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA NICELY. TEMP AND
WINDS ARE ALSO ON TARGET. THEREFORE...WILL NOT UPDATE AT THIS TIME.

.APX...NONE.

EME

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-031100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
605 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED...SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES IN ONE HOURS TIME.

PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND LAKESHORE AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/APX (ALL LOWER CASE)

JPB