Wildfire in Michigan, April 26, 2003

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1135 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2003

SIMPLY A NICE DAY IN PROGRESS WITH SUNSHINE AND VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN.  LATEST ETA/RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GOING TEMPS...ALTHOUGH
WITH LAKE HURON TEMPS STILL IN THE MID 30S...IT WILL BE NOTICABLY
COOLER NEAR THE WATER.  LAKE BREEZE MAY SET UP OFF OF SAGINAW BAY
AND LAKE HURON SHORELINE AS 925/950 WINDS RELAX A BIT MORE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY HANG ON FOR LAKE ERIE AND
NEAR LAKE ST CLAIR FOR A DOMINANT NORTHERLY WIND.  OTHER THAN THAT
WITH 1000-500 RH FIELDS LESS THAN 30%...NO CU EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.  CURRENT GRIDS ARE ON TRACK

BGM

---PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION---

VERY NICE WEEKEND ON TAP...ALBEIT A LITTLE COOL.

HUGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER JAMES BAY...RESULTING IN
DRY/NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY AFTERNOON PEAKED OUT IN THE THE LOW TO MID
60S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH THE BIG EXCEPTION
BEING NEAR SAGINAW BAY WHERE TEMPS STRUGGLED TO REACH 50 DEGREES A
STIFF NORTHEAST WIND...COUPLED WITH A DRY AIRMASS MOVING OVER LAKE
HURON/SAGINAW BAY KEPT SAGINAWS (MBS) MAX TEMP IN THE UPPER 40S (49
DEGREES TO BE EXACT). TODAYS FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
IMPACT OF LAKE HURON/SAGINAW BAY ON MAX TEMPS. SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE
A PROBLEM...AS 1000-500 MB RH PROGGED TO BE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS AND FULL SUNSHINE...PLAN ON GO WITH MAXES
AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...IN LINE WITH THE GFS
GUIDANCE. A WEAKER WIND FIELD SHOULD ALLOW MBS TO MAKE INTO THE MID
50S AT LEAST.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS CLOSE TO THE COLDER GFS GUIDANCE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE GOOD
RADIATORS (BAX) ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SHOULD DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S.

FOR SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY
NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING 850 MB TEMPS TO CLIMB TO 7 C BY DAYS END ON
SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORTS MAXES CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES. FLINT CERTAINLY
HAS A DECENT SHOT AT A 40 DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE 30/70.

COLD FRONT PRETTY MUCH WASHES OUT OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. PRETTY
TIGHT 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON THE WARM SIDE. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS OF AT LEAST 8 C (ALONG WITH RELATIVELY WARM MINS IN THE UPPER
40S)...IT WONT TAKE MUCH SUN TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY.
WILL GO AHEAD AND BUMP TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. AS FAR AS
PRECIP CHANGES GO...I AM NOT TOO IMPRESSED. NEVER-THE-LESS...THE ETA
MODEL IS SHOWING LIS FALLING SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DYNAMICS/SURFACE CONVERGENCE. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT LOWER POPS TO 30 PERCENT.

LARGE HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT AS THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BOTH ETA/GFS ARE
HINTING AT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST...AND
THEN TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS
POINT...I AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED...AS THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY LOOKS PRETTY STRONG. THIS HIGH SHOULD
SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER.

.DTX...NONE.

SF

EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-271200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
520 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GURNEY