Damaging Wind in Maryland, July 9, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

AT 330 THE FRONT HAD MADE ITS WAY ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS A RARITAN
BAY-FLEMINGTON-BETHLEHEM LINE.  TEMPS WERE ONLY IN THE 60S IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND NEAR 90 IN THE SOUTH.  OTHER THEN SOME SHOWERS
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT, THERE WAS NO PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS TO OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE WASHINGTON DC AREA
AND IN POINTS WEST AND SOUTHWEST.  THAT CONVECTION IS MOVING TO THE
EAST.  AS A RESULT, THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR
FORECAST AREA IS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  THOSE COUNTIES ARE
PRESENTLY UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
900 PM.

NOT MUCH WAS CHANGED IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  WE REMOVED THE
MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE MONDAY FORECAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
TRIGGER EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

THE ZONE FORECASTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

.PHI...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 900 PM FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN
        NJ, DE AND NORTHEASTERN MD. (NJ ZONES 16/17/21>25, DE ZONES
        1>4, AND MD ZONES 8/12/15/19/20).

IOVINO

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-091100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
510 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...AND
NEW JERSEY EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RPW

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021>025-100000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1203 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WILL COMBINE WITH THE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS AFTERNOON.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...BRIEF LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. REMEMBER NEVER TO
DRIVE ACROSS A ROAD WHICH IS COVERED BY WATER. TURN AROUND AND FIND
AN ALTERNATE ROUTE.

WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN OCCUR. IF A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES YOUR AREA...REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM
COMPLETELY PASSES THE REGION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. ADDITIONAL WEATHER
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI IN
SMALL LETTERS.

GORSE

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016-017-021>025-100100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
145 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS.

IN NEW JERSEY...ATLANTIC...CAPE MAY...CUMBERLAND...GLOUCESTER...AND
SALEM.

IN DELAWARE...KENT...NEW CASTLE...AND SUSSEX.

IN MARYLAND...CAROLINE...CECIL...KENT...QUEEN ANNES...AND TALBOT.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND IN
EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND HAIL THREE QUARTER INCH OR GREATER IN DIAMETER
IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

GORSE/SZATKOWSKI