Damaging Wind in Maryland, August 27, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1020 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

A QUICK LOOK AT RADAR...SATELLITE THIS AM. WILL ONLY MAKE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. AIRMASS PRACTICALLY UNCHANGED
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. AIRMASS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLATED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TODAY/EARLY
TONIGHT. CONVECTION COVERING THE NORTHERN ZONES AT THIS TIME WITH
MOSAIC SHOWING MORE STORMS UPSTREAM.  WILL KEEP THE SEVERE WORDING
AND RAISE POPS IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL ZONES. WHOLE AREA IN SLIGHT
RISK FOR TODAY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS OUT AROUND 15Z.

.LONG TERM THU NGT THROUGH TUE...
PROBLEM IN THE LONG TERM WILL CONT TO BE BATTLE BTWN CDFNT ENTERING
NRN ZONES FRI NGT AND H5 RDG TO THE S. IN BROAD TERMS...THE FNT
GETS INTO NRN ZONES...STALLS...DRIFTS N?...THEN FINALLY DROPS S THRU
CWA MON INTO EARLY TUE AS H5 RDG MOVES E.

STARTING TO GET SOME DRIPS AND SPITS OF NEW MODEL DATA WITH SOME
NOGAPS AND MM5 INFO THROWN IN. INDCS LTL CHG NEEDED TO CURR FCST.
WILL GO FOR HIGHER POPS EARLY IN THE WEEKEND N PTNS...CLOSER TO THE
FNT AND HIGHER MOISTURE LVLS. 12Z GFS CONSISTENT WITH LAST NGTS RUN
SHOWING PW VALUES OVR 2 ALG THE BOUNDARY NRN ZONES MAXING OUT NR
2.3 SAT. GIVEN PROLONGED NATURE OF HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND A
STALLED FNT...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A AN EYE OUT FOR PSBL HYDROLOGIC
PROBS.

RDH

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-271700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
425 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

AGAIN TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WITH VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT...SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY.
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE BETWEEN 1 PM
AND 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BY AFTERNOON.

MANNING

WVZ049-271230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
740 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO MINERAL COUNTY...

AT 740 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LUKE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF KEYSER AND PIEDMONT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
THROUGH 830 AM EDT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN
CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

MANNING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
752 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1220 AM    LAHMANSVILLE              WV   WIND DAMAGE
08/27/03   GRANT                          TREES DOWNED. EOC REPORT.

WVZ050-055-271300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
804 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING HARDY AND HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES...

AT 804 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF PURGITSVILLE TO 6 MILES WEST OF
PURGITSVILLE TO 15 MILES WEST OF PURGITSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
40 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF MOOREFIELD AND ROMNEY WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS THROUGH 900 AM EDT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

MANNING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
830 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0630 PM    WICOMICO SHORES           MD   WIND DAMAGE
08/26/03   ST. MARYS                     POWER POLES DOWNED. EOC
                                          REPORT.

0645 PM    DUNKIRK                   MD   WIND DAMAGE
08/26/03   CALVERT                        TREES DOWNED. EOC REPORT.

MDZ002-WVZ049-050-271530-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1034 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

AT 1030 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR IN STERLING INDICATED A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH GARRETT COUNTY IN WESTERN
MARYLAND. THE LINE EXTENDED FROM MCHENRY TO GRANTSVILLE MARYLAND.
THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF
FROSTBURG...LONACONING...WESTERNPORT...FORT ASHBY AND PIEDMONT AND
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
THROUGH 1130 AM EDT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN
CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

SMZ