Damaging Wind in Louisiana, July 29, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
300 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

THIS AFTERNOON A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDED FROM W PART OF N TX
TO NE OK INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND THEN E ACROSS N AR...
ALONG THE KY TN BORDER AND OFF THE VA COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTEDNED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. ALOFT HIGH
PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE NW PART OF THE COUNTY INTO CANADA
WHILE BROAD TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND SMALL CLOSED LOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE SYSTEM. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH SLOWLY
OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND
THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE LESS BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY COMING FROM MCS ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVING INTO
TX AND EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL U. S.

THERE WAS NOT MUCH ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER TX AND OK
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER
PARTS OF S AR AND N LA ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A PREVIOUS
DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED OVER NE AND E AR AND INTO MS AND TN EARLIER
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING OVER THE FOUR
STATE REGION WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.  THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AT KTXK SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WAS
103 DEGREES.

06

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SHV 75 92 74 93 / 20 40 30 30
MLU 74 91 73 93 / 30 40 30 30
TXK 76 92 74 92 / 30 40 20 20
TYR 75 94 73 93 / 20 40 20 20
LFK 74 96 73 95 / 20 30 30 30

.SHV...NONE.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-301700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1159 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE BUT NO WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.