Damaging Wind in Louisiana, August 31, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1040 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2003

...GRACE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS
MORNING...

A LARGE SWATH OF VERY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL TEXAS DOWN TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OUT
INTO THE GULF TO 120 MILES SOUTH OF SABINE PASS. THIS WHOLE AREA IS
FUNNELING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS RAIN SHIELD IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SYS MOVES INLD
AND INTO CNTRL TX.

TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE TALKED WITH
CAMERON PARISH OFFICIALS AND JEFFERSON COUNTY OFFICIALS AND THEY HAVE
INDICATED THAT THE TIDES THIS MORNING WERE NOT CAUSING ANY PROBLEMS
ALONG THE COAST. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FALLING AT THIS TIME. NEXT
HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM THIS EVENING.

RAINFALL AT BPT SINCE MIDNIGHT...2.14 INCHES AND A LITTLE OVER TWO
INCHES FOR YESTERDAY. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL FOUND OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS WAS REPORTED AT PINE ISLAND BAYOU IN WESTERN HARDIN
COUNTY.... 4.5 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO
FIVE INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH TOMORROW. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR HARDIN...JEFFERSON...AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT SOME MINOR CHANGES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KBPT 85 73 88 75 / 80 60 40 30
KLCH 83 72 87 73 / 80 30 40 20
KLFT 87 73 86 73 / 70 30 20 10
KAEX 84 72 84 73 / 60 20 30 20

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HIGH ISLAND TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH LAZ027-030-031...LAZ041>043...LAZ051>055
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TXZ180>182...TXZ201-215-216

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-011100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
600 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...FLOOD WATCH FOR LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
TODAY...
TROPICAL STORM GRACE OFF THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LOWER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SQUALLS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH NEAR THE COAST. TIDES
AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. AN ADDITIONAL THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF
RAIN EXPECTED TODAY FOR LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...LABOR DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LABOR DAY INTO TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE TO THE COAST...PERHAPS LATE
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATE INTO SATURDAY.

INFORMATION STATEMENT...THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS, HAM RADIO
OPERATORS, AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE
WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

LAZ041-051-TXZ180-181-182-201-215-216-311330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
730 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2003

AT 725 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A LINE OF
SHOWERS CONTAINING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXTENDING FROM
WEST OF BEAUMONT TO ORANGE...THEN SOUTHEAST TO CONSTANCE BEACH AND
JOHNSON BAYOU ON THE CAMERON PARISH. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH HAVE
BEEN MEASURED WITH THIS LINE.

THE LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH...AND SHOULD REACH A WARREN TO
BUNA TO VINTON LINE BY 800 AM. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINS...ON THE
ORDER OF ONE TO TWO INCHES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
FOR LATER STATEMENTS. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE
OBTAINED THROUGH OUR HOME PAGE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LCH.

LGE