Hail in Kentucky, May 15, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
440 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS MORNING.
STORMS HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO UPPER WIND MAX DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI IS RESULTING IN INCREASED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WILL HAVE TO MENTION STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN
DIMINISHING. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AS FRONT APPROACHES AND AFTERNOON HEATING PROVIDES AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE PROVIDES TRIGGER.

MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR AND WILL COMPROMISE ON AREAS WHERE
DIFFERENCES OCCUR.

...SHORT TERM...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN FCST TODAY
THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AS FRONT DROPS SOME SOUTH AND UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE EAST RESULTING IN DRYING. NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA
APPROACHES ON FRIDAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
BACK OVER FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HAVE STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND
BLENDED IN WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

LONGER TERM...
WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICNAT CHANGES ATTM.

.LMK...NONE.

SCHOLZ

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-151100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
955 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

A WARM FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE EVENING,
LEAVING BEHIND A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS EXIST NORTHWEST OF A BOWLING GREEN TO LEXINGTON
LINE. DUE TO RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, LARGE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE OUT OF THESE STORMS, ALONG WITH HIGH WIND GUSTS SHOULD
THESE STORMS ORGANIZE INTO LINES. REMEMBER THAT DEADLY LIGHTNING IS
ALWAYS A THREAT ANYTIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARBY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AGAIN DOT THE AREA THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA, WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS FORECAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND, AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS OUR WAY. AS A RESULT, SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THEN. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO SOON TO
CONFIDENTLY PREDICT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS, AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS, ARE REQUESTED TO
REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
LOUISVILLE.

SMALLCOMB