Hail and Damaging Winds in Kentucky, May 10, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
215 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2003

MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) SC INDIANA, NC KY AND EC KY HAVE BEEN
UPGRADED TO A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE. SC AND SE SECTIONS IN A MODERATE
RISK.

WE THINK THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MULTICELLULAR TO SUPERCELLULAR
STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN JUICED UP AIR
WITH SFC THETA E MAX/CAPES ARND 3500 J/KG AND AMPLE LO LVL SHEAR
ACRS THE FA. LATE THIS EVENING...WE LIKE THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION
BECAUSE OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE/
LONG LIVED DERECHO WILL LIKELY BE ENTERING/TRANSISTIONING INTO OUR
NWRN MOST FA BETWEEN 02 AND 04Z WITH BOWING SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE LINE.
BY 08Z THE LINE SHUD BE EXITING OUR SERN MOST FA.

LO PRESSURE ACRS ERN KS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN ATTM WITH GREATEST
PRESSURE FALLS ACRS NWRN IL. DEEPENING LOW PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD
THOSE PRES FALLS TO SRN WI BY 06Z WITH COLD FROPA IN THE WAKE OF
AFOREMENTIONED DERECHO. WINDS TO INCREASE AT ALL LEVELS TNGT AS
115KT UPR LVL JET STREAK REACHES THE MID MSP VLY. LOW LVL WINDS
PROGGED AT 65K...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

AFTER FROPA LATE TNGT...MUCH DRIER/STABLE AMS SURGES IN RESULTING IN
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WX THRU AT LEAST TUE.

.EXTENDED NOTES...
DAY 4-7 PERIOD SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH CHCS FOR PCPN WED-THU,
HOWEVER PER MODEST SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM 0Z GFS ENSEMBLES, THE
EVOLUTION IS UNCLEAR. MID-LEVEL ENERGY NOW IN GULF OF ALASKA FCST BY
6Z GFS TO CARVE OUT SIG TROF OVER ERN CONUS WED, WITH WEAK SFC TROF
ALLOWING FOR SOME ISO-SCT PCPN OVER LMK FA THROUGH THU. ECMWF, AND
SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, TAKE MOST OF THE ENERGY AND CREATE
DEEP EWD MVG LOW OVER DESERT SW, KEEPING ORGANIZED PCPN AWAY FROM FA
UNTIL PERHAPS FRI.

OVERALL, WILL CONTINUE LOW CHC PCPN WED-THU PER GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS,
WHICH LEAN GENERALLY TWDS OPERATIONAL GFS SOLN. PER 6Z GFS BUFKIT
DATA, FCSTING -SHRA ON WED WITH OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKING MINIMAL,
BUT -TSRA POSSIBLE ON THU WHEN LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCR. WILL
KEEP FRI-SAT DRY ATTM, AS FA LOOKS TO BE ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF 500MB
TROF IN GENERAL AREA OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

.LMK...NONE.

KIRKPATRICK/XXV

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
105 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2003

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A VERY WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN THE OUTLOOK
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. IN THIS ATMOSPHERE, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DO FORM COULD QUICKLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS, POSSIBLY PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL, SHOULD THESE
STORMS FORM ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES, THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY
FORM.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BOWLING GREEN TO LEXINGTON LINE, WITH A
MODERATE RISK SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AFTER DARK. AS THE SYSTEM REACHES THE
OUTLOOK AREA, THUNDERSTORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD REACH THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM, AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION AFTER 3 AM. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 OR EVEN 90 MPH WITHIN BOW ECHO THUNDERSTORMS,
AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
WIDESPREAD STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF
STORMS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SHEAR IN
THE ATMOSPHERE, ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS LINE.
THERE IS ALSO A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WITH THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, CONSIDERING THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE, AND THE FACT THAT SOILS REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED OVER MANY
LOCATIONS FROM PRIOR RAINFALLS.

SINCE THIS LOOKS TO BE A LATE NIGHT EVENT, YOU SHOULD ENSURE THAT
YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS TURNED ON, OR LEFT IN ALERT MODE, SO THAT
YOU CAN BE AWAKENED SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER APPROACH YOUR AREA. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA, OR VISIT WEATHER.GOV ON
THE INTERNET, FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THIS
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND AMATEUR RADIO NETWORKS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION, PARTICULARLY TONIGHT. SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICIALS, ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

SMALLCOMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
340 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0320 PM    NEW ALBANY                IN   WIND DAMAGE
05/10/03   FLOYD                          A TREE DOWN AT
                                          INTERSECTION OF MCDONALD
                                          LANE AND OXFORD DRIVE.
                                          REPORTED BY FIRE DISPATCH.

RES