Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Kentucky, May 10, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
245 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2003

AREA RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS DOWN TOWARD SOUTHEAST INDIANA. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FOCUS OF
LOW LEVEL JET/CONVERGENCE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
FOR THIS MORNING SO THINK CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AT LEAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING. WILL THEREFORE...EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH SOUTH TO INCLUDE
ENTIRE FA FOR TODAY. EXPECT CURRENT PCPN TO PUSH EAST INTO FA
THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING LEFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WITH AIRMASS REMAINING UNSTABLE...WILL HAVE TO HANG ON TO A
CHANCE THROUGH THE DAY. PWS ON THE HIGH SIDE...IN EXCESS OF 1.5
INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. 1HR
FFG GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE
SOME PROBLEMS.

MODELS PERHAPS A BIT SLOWER PUSHING FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NGM
NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS ETA/GFS. BOTH ETA/GFS SHOWING GOOD DYNAMICS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND WILL LIKELY SEE SQUALL LINE PUSH
EAST INTO FA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
TONIGHT. LOW POPS LOOK GOOD FOR EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE EAST BEFORE
DRYING WORKS IN. GOOD CAA AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS BEHIND FRONT SO
WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS GOING FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

.ILN....FLOOD WATCH TODAY ENTIRE FA.

LOTT

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ034-035-042>046-051>056-
060>065-070>074-077>082-088-091100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
410 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WARM AND HUMID AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING...THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER WILL BE LARGE HAIL.  DAYTIME HEATING...COUPLED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY...WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WARM...MOIST AIR...ALONG WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE...WILL GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY.  SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH COULD CONTAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...LASTING
INTO MONDAY.  THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT EITHER
WIND ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.