Hail and Damaging Winds in Kentucky, July 9, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
317 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON RELATED TO
OUTFLOW FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. SMALL
SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN...BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF...ACROSS EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR FA IN RELATION TO BOUNDARY...WHICH STRETCHES INTO
PORTIONS OF WEST VA AND SRN OH.

AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LITTLE INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THEN TAPER OFF
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER 06Z GFS HAD A GOOD PROG ON MINOR SHORTWAVE
TO ADVECT INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 08 TO 12Z.
THUS SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE DURING THAT TIMEFRAME AND
HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN PROXIMITY TO SAID BOUNDARY...SOUTH OF
THE I/64 CORRIDOR AND ESPECIALLY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM BNA/ILN INDICATE PWS AROUND 1.80 INCHES. ETA MODEL
SOUNDINGS INCREASE PWS LATE TNGT TO 2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY BETTER
UNDER INCREASING SWLY 850MB FLOW. CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARIES IN
CONJUNCTION WITH MINOR BUT INCREASING MASS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
COULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL IN SAID PROXIMITY LATE TONIGHT. WILL
HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WATCH DUE TO MAINLY LOCALIZED COVERAGE...BUT WILL
MENTION HWVR RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN E CTRL KY AGAIN LATE TNGT.

A LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD COME FROM ABOUT MID MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON UNDER BIT OF NVA. THEN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STRONG
SHORTWAVE SHARPENS UP LATE AFTERNOON...EXPECT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO
WARRANT LIKELY POPS AS CURRENT FCST ALREADY ADVERTISES BUT WILL
EXTEND LIKELY FURTHER INTO THU NIGHT PERIOD THEN TAPER OFF FROM NW
TO SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY...ISLTD PCPN POSSIBLE IN NWLY FLOW
COMBINED WITH SOME REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL HAVE 14 GRID
POPS BUT NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. SATURDAY WILL FORECAST MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
UNDER SOME BRIEF SATURDAY MORNING U/L RIDGING BEFORE EASTERN RIDGE
REINFORCES.

.EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS JUST BELOW
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A RIPPLE ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE
TROUGH...IT MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP
RAIN AWAY. DRY PATTERN WILL EXIST UNTIL MID WEEK AS THE NEXT FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY
THRU WEDNESDAY...AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW KICKS IN ON MONDAY.

.LMK...NONE.

JB - SCHOTT

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-100930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1244 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY
RESULT FROM THE HEAVY RAINS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THURSDAY AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHOULD THEY OBSERVE ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLOODING.

JB