Hail and Damaging Wind in Kentucky, July 23, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
324 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2003

...SHORT TERM...

RECENT SAT PICS SHOWING SCT TO BKN DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS LOCATED
OVER THE EAST.  IN AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED WITH KSME REPORTING LESS THAN A QUARTER ALREADY.  PLAN ON
MENTIONING PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING IN THE ZONES.

LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE...LARGE TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS
FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY PULL OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.  AS FOR US...WELL HAVE ONE MORE DAY TO DEAL WITH IT.  COUPLE
OF UPPER LEVEL VORTS WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  KEY FEATURE IS CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND IS
EASILY SEEN ON THE LATEST WV.  COOL H5 TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LARGE TROF WILL HELP RAMP UP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LEAD TO A
GENERALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...AND WITH FREEZING
LEVEL DOWN AROUND THE 10-11KFT RANGE...SOME STORMS...IF STRONG
ENOUGH...COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL.  IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THUS WE PLAN ON
RUNNING 30 POPS IN THE WEST AND 40 POPS IN THE EAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO END WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
VORT.  UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER
COOL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.  MAV/MET/FWC NUMBERS ARE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MID 70S EXPECTED.  COOL OVERNIGHT MINS EXPECTED
AS WELL WITH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR
TONIGHT.  AS THE TROF HEADS EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AND GIVE MUCH OF THE REGION MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.  MAV/FWC/MET NUMBERS AGAIN ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND PLAN ON
USING A BLEND.  DRY FORECAST EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.  TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
BY SATURDAY.

...EXTENDED...

EXTENDED PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT...NO CHANGES EXPECTED.

.LMK...NONE.

JARVIS

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-241100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
505 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AROUND OUR REGION...WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BECAUSE OF UNUSUALLY COLD
AIR ALOFT...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE NOTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...
BEFORE STALLING.  WITH THE FRONT IN OUR PROXIMITY...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

STUREY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
0116 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0145 PM    MORGANTOWN                KY   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/03   BUTLER                         SCATTERED TREES DOWN
                                          ACROSS NORTWEST PART OF
                                          COUNTY. REPORTED BY HIGHWAY
                                          DEPT.

PKW