Hail in Kentucky, July 21, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1235 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2003

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LOW WAS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE PINWHEELING AROUND THIS FEATURE.
THE FIRST OF THESE...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...HELPED
TO TOUCH OFF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PRIMARILY OVER MY NORTHEAST WITH
A TRAILING LINE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
AREA. SKIES CLEARED OUT A BIT BETTER THAN EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE RESULTANT MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP SPAWN
SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD CARRY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
STILL IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY
TUESDAY PLACING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION. USING THE
TIMING OF THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH AS THE END TIME OF THE
PRECIP...WILL HAVE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALL AREAS THROUGH
00Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST.

DRY WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE THE PATTERN WE HEAD INTO TROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A GENERAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
BE ON TAP FROM TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN MOVES EAST AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST.

SUNDAY THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RETROGRADES FARTHER WEST
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE AREA.

FOR DAY 7...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON MONDAY. LATEST GFS SUGGESTS
THAT SUNDAY/S WEATHER WILL BE EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
YIELDING A DRY MONDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF
FEATURES IN NORTHWEST FLOW...ESPECIALLY ON DAY 7...WILL PLACE A LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AS WELL AS CONFIDENCE IS A DRY
FORECAST IS LOW.

.PAH...NONE.

DFS

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-221000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1202 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD
INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST
KENTUCKY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
ANOTHER CHANCE WILL ROLL IN ON TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
220 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0208 PM    ALLEGRE                   KY   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/03   TODD                           TREE DOWN AND NUMEROUS
                                          LIMBS REPORTED BY EOC