Flash Flood in Kentucky, February 22, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
500 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE WITH TROUGH IN CENTRAL PLAINS PLAINS
APPROACHING.  STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT 850 MB NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

RADAR SHOWING LATEST SLUG OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH CWA...THEN A BIT OF
A REST BEFORE THE NEXT ONE COMES.  EXPECT SOME GOOD WIND GUSTS TODAY
WITH DRY SLOT AND STRONG WIND PROFILE.  INSTABILITY WILL BE
MODEST...SO NOT EXPECTING A WIDE OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY ISOLATED SEVERE.

MODELS ARE INITIALIZING FAIRLY WELL AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
NEAR TERM TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY
AFFECTING OUR WEATHER TODAY.  IT SHOULD TRACK NEAR THE CWA THIS
EVENING...DRAGGING AN NEWLY OCCLUDING FRONT WITH IT.  THE LOW WILL
DEEPEN AND BE NEAR NY STATE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE GROUND IS SATURATED.  OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT
IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.  WITH MORE RAIN ON THE WAY
TODAY AND WITH PW VALUES OVER AN INCH...AND A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL
JET...FLOODING IS DEFINITELY A CONCERN.

SOME RESIDUAL POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE A SMALL
CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE MORNING.

MONDAY IS TRICKY AS A REAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE.  LOOKS AS IF COLD FRONT WILL PASS TOWARD AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW NOT SO COOL HIGHS TO OCCUR...THEN A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP
WILL OCCUR BY NIGHTFALL MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE COLD FOR SURE.

.JKL...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY.

HEINLEIN
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PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

920 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2003

1Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING 996 MB LOW OVER LA. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDED NE FROM THE LOW INTO THE
TN AND OH VALLEYS. THE LOCATION OF THIS TROF IS NEAR THE EXPECTED
TRACK OF THE LOW.

LATEST REGIONAL RADARS AND OBS INDICATE THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
HAS REACHED INTO MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT ZONES MENTION RAIN HEAVY AT
TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOME ZONES SO AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO
REMOVE MIDNIGHT WORDING AND TO CHANGE OR ADD FOG WORDING. WIDESPREAD
FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG AND NEAR THE INVERTED TROF AS A RESULT
OF LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE HAVE NOT BEEN REPORTED...WITH LOWER
VISIBILITIES MAINLY CONFINED TO SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS.
FLEMING/MASON COUNTY AIRPORT AND HTS RECENTLY REPORTED 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...BUT SO FAR
HAVE HANDLED WITH NOWCASTS. WHEN RAIN MOVES INTO THESE MORE NORTHERN
LOCATION TOWARD DAWN...VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE. AS FOR TEMPS...
WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND EXPECTED RAINFALL...TEMPS SHOULD
NOT DROP OFF MUCH MORE AND WILL MENTION NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES
NEAR THEIR CURRENT VALUES.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS WILL BE OUT BY 10 PM.

PELTON

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345 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2003

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND A DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST TEXAS GULF COAST. AN INVERTED
TYPE TROUGH POINTS FROM THIS UP INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY KEEPING
THINGS DAMP. LOCAL AND MOSAIC RADARS ARE SHOWING A HOLE IN THE
SHOWERS THAT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT HAS SENT DEWPOINTS UP TOWARD 50
DEGREES WITH AREAS OF FOG AROUND WITH PLENTY FOUND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 IN THE MELTING ZONE.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT TAKING A WELL DEFINED
TROUGH FROM OLD MEXICO NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. PLENTY OF UNCONSOLIDATED POCKETS VORTICITY WILL LEAD AND
ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH. FOLLOWING THIS THE PATTERN TEMPORARILY
FLATTENS BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH HEADS TOWARD THE AREA. THIS SECOND
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN TANDEM WITH A DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT
WILL SWING DOWN SIGNALING A SOUTHERN SHIFT TO THE ARCTIC VORTEX FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVER THE WEST THAT WILL MOVE EAST AND THREATEN TO CONSOLIDATE
INTO ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LOW...DESTINED TO  BRING ANOTHER LARGE STORM
SYSTEM INTO THIS REGION.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...EAST KENTUCKY IS ENDURING ANOTHER WET START
TO THE WEEKEND. THIS MOIST SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SURGING NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL AS DRY SLOTTING MOVES
IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE POWERFUL LOW PASSING JUST TO
OUR WEST. A DRIER AFTERNOON WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER AND POSSIBLY MIDDLE 60S THANKS TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW PASSES ITS COLD FRONT WILL DRAG A SQUALL LINE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE EVENING WITH ANOTHER QUICK SHOT
OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN
QPF FROM THE MODELS...GENERALLY PREFER THE ETA/S WHICH LINES UP WITH
THE FORECAST FROM HPC AND ALSO THE RFC. AS A RESULT...RIVER FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THE
RATE OF RAINFALL IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT COMES UP...AND MORE ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING SATURDAY EVENING FROM THE QUICK MOVING SQUALL LINE. THUS A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM WILL BE DEMONSTRATED AS THE COLD AIR
RUSHES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HARDLY AFTER THE THUNDER HAS QUIT RUMBLING
...SNOW COULD BE FLYING. THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT
QUICKLY THOUGH ALLOWING FOR ONLY GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BY NOON SUNDAY. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE EARLIER RAINFALL AND WET GROUND CUTTING INTO
TOTALS.

FURTHER AHEAD IN TIME AFTER A COOL DAY SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW...THOUGH
WEAKENING...WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH AND RAIN
SOUTH FOR MONDAY. THIS EVENT WILL BRING DOWN THE ARCTIC AIR IN ITS
WAKE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO
END THE WORK WEEK. CERTAINLY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TO BEGIN WITH
ALONG WITH SOME ICE...BUT THE LATEST MID RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
A LOW TRACK TO OUR WEST SO MAINLY RAIN...PROBABLY HEAVY...FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR THROUGH THE PERIOD DID NOT STRAY
MUCH EXCEPT TO BLEND HIGH TEMPS FOR SATURDAY IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE
RANGE...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DRY SLOT. POPS LOOKED
REASONABLE.

AS FOR IFPS/GFE GRIDS...REPOPULATED WITH MY PREFERRED METHOD OF
MESOETA WINDS AND TEMPS FIELDS THROUGH 60 HOURS. HAD TO ADJUST THESE
MAJORLY TO LOWER THE EXCESSIVELY WARM TEMPS IN THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THEY DID SEEM TO CAPTURE THE COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT FOR
THE MELTING ZONES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN QUICKER
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE BEEFING UP CLOUDS/POPS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
EXTENDED.

WORK ZONES WILL BE AVAILABLE BEFORE TOO LONG UNDER THE AFOS PRODUCT
SDFOZFJKL. UPDATES TO THE HWO AND FFA WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

PRELIMINARY CCFS:
LOZ 048/063 031/040 032 ++6
JKL 047/061 031/038 030 ++7

GREIF

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1045 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2003

LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST. TEMPS ARE RESPONDING
SOMEWHAT...BUT FEEL THAT PROJECTED HIGHS MAY BE A HAIR TOO MILD...AS
EVEN THE NOTORIOUS MIDDLESBORO IS COMING IN A BIT SUPPRESSED. POPS
LOOK FINE...DONT SEE ANY REASON TO ADJUST THESE AS PRECIP SHIELD
HAS A FEW HOLES OFF TO THE WEST. DID ADJUST QPF DOWN AS LOCAL 6
GROUPS OFF OF OBS ARENT SHOWING ANYTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE. WILL ALSO
MENTION AREAS OF FOG AS VISIBILITIES HAVE STAYED DOWN TODAY.
DEWPOINT SEEMS TO WANT TO INCREASE THE SAME RATE AS TEMP. UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY.

GEOGERIAN

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-231200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FOR TIME OF EXPIRATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
610 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY. PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATER TONIGHT...LEADING TO QUICK RISES ON
AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SNOW. AT THIS TIME...LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE ON MONDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW...AGAIN WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MORE RAIN FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL REPORTS.

RAY/DUSTY