Hail and Damaging Winds in Kentucky, August 27, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
253 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2003

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE RESTS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
WEEK.

WITH LIMITED 00Z MODEL DATA...THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY TODAY. A COMPARISON OF THE
TWO 00Z MODEL REPLACEMENTS (MM5 AND NOGAPS) INDICATED NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GENERAL FORECAST SCENARIO FROM THE EARLIER ETA AND
GFS RUNS.

IN GENERAL...A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR LATER TODAY...THEN RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FORECAST HIGHS
AT OR ABOVE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S...EXPECT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BETTER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL FORCE HEAT INDICES TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
100 DEGREES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A HEADLINE IN THE ZONE PACKAGE.

EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE ITS TIME MAKING IT PAST THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEK...BOOSTING RAIN CHANCES AS IT DOES SO. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG THE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA. 18Z GFS...00Z NOGAPS (GFS REPLACEMENT)...AND 00Z CANADIAN ALL
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS A SECONDARY WAVE
TRANSLATES EAST ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS...IT
IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE AGAINST LINGERING PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY.
UNTIL NEW MODEL DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE...WILL BUMP UP POPS ABOUT 10
PERCENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST AND CHANCE SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

.PAH...NONE.

RJP

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-281000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
500 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COVERAGE WILL VARY FROM SCATTERED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR TO ISOLATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF MISSOURI AND
KENTUCKY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

IN ADDITION...TODAY WILL AGAIN BE HOT AND HUMID. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 100 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...AS HEAT INDICES TOP
100 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY.

THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE STORMS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

RJP