Hail and Damaging Wind in Kansas, May 23 to 24, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2003

DAYS 1-2...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN KS INTO EASTERN
COLORADO/WYOMING. STILL HAVE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS NEAR HYS ALONG
CONVERGENCE ZONE. WV LOOP AND PROFILER PLOTS SHOWED A S/W TROF OVER
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS MORNING. THINKING WE WILL SEE ANOTHER MCS
DEVELOP OVER THAT AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT BUT A BIT FURTHER WEST.  THIS MORNINGS
GRIDS MORE OR LESS ALREADY REFLECT THIS SO DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES.  THE WAVE/MCS SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
OK/TX BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER
AREA.  THIS WILL PROBABLY KEEP A PRETTY GOOD BLANKET OF STRATUS AND
SOME FOG OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY.  AS LONG AS THE CLOUDS STAY
OVER AREA, EXPECT CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS TO BE PRETTY
CLOSE. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF EASTERN CWA AND
LIKELY AS WELL FOR SOUTHEAST TILL NOON OR SO SATURDAY.  THEN LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND MOVE INTO WESTERN CWA NEAR FRONT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHWEST BUT DID CUT THE POPS FOR THE SOUTHEAST
BACK TO CHC FROM LIKELY.  ALSO ENTERED SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA FOR
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

DAYS 3-7...
WE SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF A BIT
FARTHER SW THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING. IN ADDITION,
MODELS SHOW FAIRLY DECENT SURFACE RIDGE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS
BY TUES MORNING. WILL THEREFORE GO BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPS MON AND
TUES. BACKED OFF ON POPS TO SLGT CHC ON SUN AND MON NIGHT AS GFS IS
NOT AGGRESSIVE AT ALL WITH QPF AND THE FLOW REGIME BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE FOR MCS ACTIVITY AROUND HERE. RIDGE AXIS PROGGED TO SHIFT
EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SO WILL GO
DRY WITH A GOOD WARMUP FOR WED-FRI.

.PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 60 72 55 74 / 70 60 40 20
GCK 56 73 54 73 / 50 50 50 20
EHA 61 76 54 72 / 30 50 70 20
LBL 60 75 55 73 / 30 60 60 20
HYS 56 71 55 73 / 70 60 30 20
P28 63 72 56 75 / 70 70 30 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.

15/27

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-241000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
945 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY IMPACT MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST
TO THE LAKIN, SCOTT CITY, AND DIGHTON AREAS AFTER 1 AM. THE
STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE WITH LARGE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS EXPECTED AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS, WHICH MAY PROMOTE LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY, AS A LARGE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN, WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS A CONCERN WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION AFTER 1 AM OVER ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

RB