Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, May 10, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
250 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEGINNING TO EJECT INTO HIGH
PLAINS...AS 120KT 250MB JET STREAK ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH. AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE CONVERGENCE ALONG NOSE OF 60+KT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING
MCS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPS FURTHER EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS/WEST CENTRAL MO IN BAND
OF WARM AIR/THETA-E ADVECTION.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS AREA THROUGH SUNRISE AS IT SHIFTS
NORTH ALONG 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT. PLAN TO ALLOW FLOOD WATCH TO
EXPIRE THIS MORNING...AS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF WATCH AREA BY
SUNRISE.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW CURRENTLY OVER OK PANHANDLE WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO
CENTRAL MO. AS JET STREAK SPREADS ACROSS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH FORECAST AREA TODAY.
AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH...EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PROGGED TO SPREAD
ACROSS AREA...WITH SBCAPE OF 4000-5000 J/KG INDICATED ON META PROG
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN EXPAND SOUTHWARD
ALONG SURGING DRYLINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO IN REGION OF BACKED SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF LOW.
CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AS DRYLINE/FRONT PUSHES
INTO EASTERN MO/WESTERN IL.

SEAMAN

351 PM FRI MAY 9...
ANOTHER ACTIVE NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR EAST KANSAS AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI. SATELLITES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM LASTNIGHT HAS CONTINUED TO
WALLOW AROUND CENTRAL MISSOURI TODAY. LATEST OBS WOULD PLACE THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS WICHITA THROUGH KANSAS CITY TO SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH
OF KIRKSVILLE. LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE FRONT...AND WITH A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THERE IS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. ON THE OTHER HAND DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 70+ RANGE. SGF HAD AN 18Z SOUNDING...CAPES WHERE
ABOVE 4000 J/KG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7+ C/KM. THE
SOUNDING IS SHOWING A WEAK CAP ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...BUT MODELS
PROG A VORT MAX TO WORK ITS WAY FROM TX THROUGH WEST OK AND INTO
SOUTH/CENTRAL MO TONIGHT. I ANTICIPATE THAT THIS SHOULD WEAKEN
ANY REMAINING CAP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND POP OFF SOME
STORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO GO THIS AFTERNOON IN OK BACK
THIS IDEA UP. AS THE THE VORT MAX MOVES INTO MO OVERNIGHT THE NOSE
OF THE LLJ SHOULD BACK ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL SET UP THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA  FOR STRONG CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. THE HODOGRAPHS INDICATE THAT LINES/MULTI-CELL
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KANSAS
CITY THROUGH MOBERLY. THEREFORE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH OUR OVERNIGHT SEVERE WEATHER. ADDITIONALLY...WITH A
HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE A PROBLEM OVER NIGHT. FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES FOR CENTRAL
MISSOURI ARE A BIT LOW GIVEN ALL THE RECENT RAINS THAT HAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE GONE WITH A FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM MOBERLY TO ODESSA TO CLINTON.

FOR TOMORROW MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS ON TAP. A WEST COAST TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH THE MIDWEST SATURDAY SPINNING UP A NICE SURFACE LOW IN
THE PANHANDLE OF TX/OK. THIS IS FORECASTS TO LIFT THROUGH MISSOURI
DURNING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE BEST DYNAMICS INDICATE
THAT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD LIGHT UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI
EAST OF A LINE FROM BETHANY TO BUTLER. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVING ACROSS MISSOURI...AND A BOUNDARY FLOATING AROUND IN OUR
CENTRAL SECTION...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH HILICITY MAKE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS A POSSABLITLY. WITH
THIS COMES THE THREAT OF HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CUTTER

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM FOR ZONES MOZ033...MOZ038>040...
MOZ044>046...MOZ054.

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-101100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
105 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL WILL BE IN LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KANSAS
CITY TO MOBERLY MISSOURI.  THERE WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT IN
NORTHERN MISSOURI.  HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSOURI ALREADY HAVE SATURATED GROUND FROM EARLIER RAINS...SO IF
THE HEAVY RAIN OCCURS...IT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT BE WEAKENING AND
THEN DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP IN CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST
OF A LINE FROM BETHANY TO BUTLER MISSOURI. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THESE
STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING.

FOR NEXT WEEK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO EAST KANSAS
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT IN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO MOBERLY MISSOURI AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BETHANY TO BUTLER MISSOURI

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX
OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

PC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
134 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1012 PM    ALMA                      MO   TORNADO
05/08/03   LAFAYETTE                      REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
135 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1035 PM    3 NE MT LEONARD           MO   TORNADO
05/08/03   SALINE                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

KSZ057-060-MOZ043>045-053-054-101300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
307 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 332...IN
EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TORNADO WATCH INCLUDES
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN MISSOURI:

BATES...CASS...HENRY...JOHNSON AND PETTIS.

IN KANSAS:

LINN AND MIAMI.

SOME CITIES IN THIS TORNADO WATCH INCLUDE BUTLER...CLINTON...
HARRISONVILLE...PAOLA...SEDALIA AND WARRENSBURG.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS...IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER MAY NOT BE IMMINENT...PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

KSZ025-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-046-101300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
310 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 333...IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN MISSOURI:

ADAIR...ANDREW...ATCHISON...BUCHANAN...CALDWELL...CARROLL...
CHARITON...CLAY...CLINTON...COOPER...DAVIESS...DE KALB...GENTRY...
GRUNDY...HARRISON...HOLT...HOWARD...JACKSON...LAFAYETTE...LINN...
LIVINGSTON...MACON...MERCER...NODAWAY...PLATTE...PUTNAM...RANDOLPH...
RAY...SALINE...SCHUYLER...SULLIVAN AND WORTH.

IN KANSAS:

ATCHISON...DONIPHAN...JOHNSON...LEAVENWORTH AND WYANDOTTE.

SOME CITIES IN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE ATCHISON...
BETHANY...BOONVILLE...CHILLICOTHE...KANSAS CITY...KIRKSVILLE...
MARSHALL...MARYVILLE...MOBERLY...OLATHE...ROCKPORT...ST JOSEPH AND
TRENTON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE IMMINENT...PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0338 AM    BLUE SPGS                 MO   .75 INCH HAIL
05/10/03   JACKSON                        REPORTED BY OFF-DUTY
                                          NWS EMPLOYEE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
359 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0347 AM    CLINTON                   MO   .75 INCH HAIL
05/10/03   HENRY                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.