Hail in Kansas, March 17, 2003

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
204 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

12Z UPR AIR AND VAPOR SHOW LG SCALE UPR TROF NR THE 4 CORNERS. LEAD
WV RESPONSIBLE FOR AM CONVN ACRS ERN PARTS OF CWA CONTS TO LIFT NWD
W/WK SUBSIDENCE IN BEHIND...ENOUGH TO SCOUR RESIDUAL MID/HIGH CLD
DEBRIS ADVT OUT OF CNTL KS FOR A TIME. ENSUING DIURNAL RECOVERY
LEADING TO SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION AND SCT RW DVLPMNT ACRS SRN CWA
ATTM. HWVR...MORE IMPORTANT SHRT TERM CONCERN SHIFTING TWD
INCIPIENT EJECTION OF SECONDARY...STRONGER TROF FM SE CO INTO OK.
OTHERWISE...DOWNSTREAM CLSD UPR LOW OVR SE US CONTS TO RETARD
APPRECIABLE DEEP GULF MSTR RTN INTO THE PLAINS AS EVIDENT BY GENERAL
LACK OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PLAINS.

AGAIN...SHRT TERM CONCERNS RELEGATED TO CURRENT EJECTION OF
SECONDARY LG SCALE WV AND INHERENT SVR RISK THIS AFTN AND EVENING
ASSUMING CONTD DESTABILIZATION AHD OF THIS FTR. HWVR ASSOCD RISK AT
THIS POINT LOOKS ISOLD AT BEST GIVEN LACK OF SIG DEEP LYR SHEAR...
MARGINAL MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND GENERAL LACK OF SIG SFC INSTABILITY.
AT ANY RATE...DO XPC A FEW STORMS LT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING ALG
A CNK TO LXN LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME STONES AS LG SCALE ASCENT
RAMPS UP AHD OF APPROACHING UPR TROF IN CONJUNCTION W/RATHER LOW WET-
BULB ZERO HGTS. RAIN CHCS WILL BE PAIRED DOWN ACRS NE CORNER OF CWA
AGAIN CONTINGENT UPON OBSVD LACK OF DEEPER MSTR ENTRAINMENT INTO SYS
WHICH AGREES W/MODEL QPF TRENDS. PROXIMITY OF THIS WV AND OVERALL
POSITION OF STACKED UPR/SFC SYS ACRS KS WARRANT CONTD CATEGORICAL
POPS TUE AND THEN INTO WED NIGHT AS MAIN UPR WV FINALLY COMES OUT.
BEST SPRT FOR ANY THUNDER AFT TOMORROW LOOKS TO SHIFT WELL S
AND HV DROPPED THAT MENTION XPC ACRS NRN KS TUE NIGHT...W/GENERAL
SOAKING RAIN EVENT XPCD OVERALL...ESP WED NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO THU
IN ASSOCN/W MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE DVLPMNT. HARD TO TELL HOW
QUICKLY THIS SYS WILL SPIN DOWN OR WHERE FOR THAT MATTER AS BELIED BY
DISAGREEABLE H5 PROGS 12Z THU. WILL KEEP THINGS PRETTY MUCH AS IS
THEN BUT SEE LTL REASON TO CONT MENTION OF SN W/SUCH WARM BNDRY LYR
TEMPS OFF ETA/META GRIDS.

BEYOND THAT...SOMEWHAT WARMER BY NXT WEEKEND AND DRY. WRN TROF
RELOADING THAT TIME AS NXT SIG UPR TROF COMES INLAND. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THAT DVLPMNT AS IT DRAWS CLOSER...ESP DOWN IN KS W/SOME
POTENTIAL AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT OR SUN.

.GID...NONE.
T

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
507 AM CST MON MAR 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PLAINS REGION. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED...ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE
SUCH THAT SOME OF THE STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...NAMELY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

THE MAIN HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE DIME TO QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...ALTHOUGH STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

GUYER