Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 9, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
200 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2003

FOR THE WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE
...CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND THE WEST CONUS RIDGE WILL START
TO EXPAND EAST...BEGINNING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP.
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
PATTERN...WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SHIFTING THE RIDGE EAST. THE GFS
WANTS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE BACK OUT INTO A REPEAT OF THE PATTERN
THAT HAS DOMINATED THE MIDWEST FOR THE PAST WEEK. PREFERENCE IS ON
THE MAJORITY CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS. THIS WOULD
INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN HOT AND HUMID THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THOUGH...GIVEN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE
FLATTENED RIDGE PATTERN OF THIS PAST WEEK...THE GFSS FLATTENED
RIDGE WOULD LEAVE US HOT AND HUMID ALSO. THEREFORE I ONLY MADE MINOR
CHANGES TO THE GOING TEMPERATURES...AND LEFT THE EXTENDED SECTIONS
DRY.

CUTTER

2PM...
CONVECTION REMAINS FOCUS OF FORECAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES
ALONG MO/IA BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS SFC LOW MOVES JUST TO
OUR NE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO FOCUS
ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. AFTER SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN 24 HRS
AGO...MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN PUSHING THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE
AREA BY AROUND 08Z THU. PER SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...INSTABILITY SEEMS
FOCUSED IN NORTHEAST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA.  CAPES OF AROUND
3500-4500 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT BEST MID LEVEL CAPE
AND SHEAR SEEM LOCALIZED IN NE MO AND S IOWA. CARRY CHANCE OF TS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN DRY THINGS OUT. ETA/GFS TRY TO
PUT A SURFACE LOW OVER OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY PUSHING A THETA E RIDGE
INTO THE AREA. THINK ANY PRECIP FROM THIS TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF FA AND WILL GO DRY FOR NOW. BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN
THE SHORT TERM.

SJ

12 PM...

CONVECTION FORMED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...KEEPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MO RIVER. WILL UPDATE ZONE FORECASTS TO CONTINUE PRECIP IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRESHEN WORDING...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

200 AM...

MAIN CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF STRONG CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUED TO BE
LOCATED ALONG THE MISSOURI AND IOWA BORDER. CONVECTION HAS CEASED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY DUE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING...INCREASING CAP AND
ONLY WEAK THETAE ADVECTION IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT
THETAE ADVECTION TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT CAP
ALSO INCREASING AS PER MESOETA. MESOETA GENERATES PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI IN RESPONSE TO A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM CURRENT NEBRASKA COMPLEX. OUTLFOW BOUNDARY SEEN IN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR...BUT CONVECTION MAY BE TOUGH TO GENERATE DUE
TO CAP...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POP EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING DUE TO UNCERTAINTITY.

BELIEVE MESOETA CHARGES THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TOO FAR SOUTH INTO
MISSOURI BY 18Z...TO I-70. EXPECT BOUNDARY TO DRIFT INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND MAY SERVE TO REINFORCE FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
ALONG THE BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON IF IT CAN HOLD ITS POSITION WHICH MAY BE TOUGH DUE TO
RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN NORTHERN
IOWA...AND STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING.

OTHERWISE...ETA/AVN MODELS SIMILIAR IN DROPPING STRONG UPPER TROF
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
SIMILIAR...REACHING A STJ TO BETHANY LINE BY 00Z...AND QUICKLY EXITING
THE SOUTHEAST CWA BY 09Z. ALTHOUGH CAP RATHER STRONG...FRONT COMING
THROUGH AT TIME AT MAX HEATING. PLAN TO BOOST POPS A LITTLE MORE AS
FEEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH INCREASING SHEAR. MESOETA
INSTABILITY AND CAPE VALUES LOOK A LITTLE UNDERDONE...LIKELY DUE TO
UNLIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WELL
SOUTH INTO THE CWA...KEEPING ITS SURFACE TEMPERATURES TOO COLD.
EXPECT CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM ACITIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER...IF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HOLDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ENOUGH
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL.

IN ADDITION...HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT HEAT INDICES FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE HEAT INDICES WILL FALL JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR
WEST CENTRAL ZONES...BETWEEN 100 AND 105.

OTHERWISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

DB

300 PM...

NEXT CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF SEVERE WX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MESOETA
SOUNDING SHOWS CAPES BUILD TO 3000 - 4000 J/KG BY WED AFTERNOON. ETA
SHOW SURFACE FRONT ENTERING IN NW MO AROUND 18Z WED. WIND PROFILE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE VEERING IN THE WINDS WITH HEIGHTS. 700MB TEMPS
WARMING BY 12Z WED IN WEST...SO CAPPING WILL HOLD OFF ACTIVITY TIL
AROUND 18Z WHEN FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM IOWA WHERE MODELS SHOW BEST
DYNAMICS. MODERATE WINDS ALOFT SHOULD MAKE IN-LINE WIND DAMAGE THE
MAJOR THREAT. FREEZING LEVELS ARE AROUND 15 K...SO LARGE HAIL WOULD
ONLY BE LIMITED TO THE STRONGEST STORMS. AFTERWARDS...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE
SPEEDING UP TIMING OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY BY ABOUT 4 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO SHORT TERM AT THIS TIME.

SJ

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-101100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
101 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE. THE UNSTABLE AIR ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...WILL HELP SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. SUFFICIENT SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT IN NORTHEASTERN
MISSOURI TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...IN THE VICINITY OF ANOTHER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.. THAT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
GRANT CITY TO TRENTON TO MACON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX
OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

LVQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
527 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0521 PM    5 E GRAHAM                MO   1 INCH HAIL
07/09/03   NODAWAY                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
642 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0521 PM    10 WSW BOLCKOW            MO   .75 INCH HAIL
07/09/03   ANDREW                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
728 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0609 PM    10 WSW BOLCKOW            MO   .75 INCH HAIL
07/09/03   ANDREW                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
730 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0609 PM    3 W PRINCETON             MO   WIND DAMAGE
07/09/03   MERCER                         LARGE TREE LIMBS
                                          REPORTED DOWN
                                          REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
910 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0905 PM    INDEPENDENCE              MO   .75 INCH HAIL
07/09/03   JACKSON                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
912 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0910 PM    INDEPENDENCE              MO   .88 INCH HAIL
07/09/03   JACKSON                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.