Damaging Wind in Kansas, August 25, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
153 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE POPS AND TIMING OF FRONT

THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE TROUGH AXIS FROM A LOW IN
NORTHCENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIP OF KANSAS...TO
A LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. SATELLITE AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
SHOWING ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THIS AXIS. A SHORTWAVE CAN
BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN COLORADO MOVING
SOUTHEAST

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENT ACTIVITY NEAR THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL NECESSITATE SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NEBRASKA/COLORADO AS WELL AS FAR WEST KANSAS ZONES TONIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST ALREADY HAS WELL IN HAND.  SAME SCENARIO WILL LIKELY TAKE
PLACE ON TUESDAY NEAR SURFACE TROUGH. CURRENT FOECAST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LOOKS GOOD. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LITTLE OR NO
DYNAMICS. THURSDAY HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF -TSRA WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND GOOD FORCING. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN
THE MODELS ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF MOST OF THE FORECAST BY MIDNIGHT AND
WILL RESTRICT POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES FROM 06-12Z FRIDAY. 850
TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAY 3 SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

DAYS 4-7...NORTHWEST FLOW ON DAY 4 MODIFIES GRADUALLY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE ROCKIES BY SUN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON SUN. SOME MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE CANADIAN FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY EVENING ACCORDING TO THE GFS WITH GOOD FORCING. PER
COORDINATION WITH KBOU...KLBF...KDDC WILL BE ON THE CAUTIOUS SIDE
WITH POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH
SUBSIDENCE. WILL COOL DOWN MAX TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S ON
SATURDAY AND THEN WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.GLD...NONE.

FS

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1028 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AREA OVER EASTERN COLORADO THAT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING WILL BE AIDED BY A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO
20 MPH WILL PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS TODAY.

EXTREME FIRE DANGER MEANS FIRES START QUICKLY...SPREAD FURIOUSLY...
AND BURN INTENSELY. ALL FIRES ARE POTENTIALLY SERIOUS. ALL OUTSIDE
BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN AREAS WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THEY FORM NEAR THE FRONT
RANGE AND MOVE OUT OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING.  ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

LOCKHART/RJC