Tornado and Hail in Minnesota, August 25, 2003

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
310 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2003

FCST CHALLENGE...TSTM AND SVR THREAT THIS EVENING...AND WED PM.

NEAR TERM/ANALYSIS...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALG AND EAST
OF THE SFC TROF FM SOUTHERN MB INTO EASTERN ND...TO THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN CENTRAL SD. INSTABILITY IS HIGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH SLIGHT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE RRV. MEANWHILE...STRONG STORM ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF
THE CANAM BORDER WHERE ATMOSPHERE IS UNCAPPED. 18Z MESOETA NOW SHOWS
THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW IN SD...WHICH KEEPS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HEATING FOCUSED INTO THE SOUTHERN RRV FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHERN
MB SHOULD SKIRT FAR NORTHERN MINNSOTA ZONES THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEASTERN ND AND SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE WATCH FOR THIS
EVENING.

TUESDAY THRU THURS...FAIRLY FLAT 500MB FLOW WILL BRING
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY COOL CLOSER TO NORMALS OVER
THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...AVN SHOWS DEELP SURFACE LOW
DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN DKTAS AND SETTING UP THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SERIOUD CONVECTION. TEMPS IN EASTERN ND SHOULD SEE RAPID WARMUP
WEDNESDAY AS LOW DEVELOPS WHILE COOLER FLOW WILL HOLD OVER NORTHWEST
MN. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY PM INTO
THURSDAY AND SHOULD WET MUCH OF THE AREA.

EXTENDED (FRI-MON)...500 MB PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY STAGNANT THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS MAIN LOW WOBBLES AROUND HUDSON BAY. SPOKES
OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW ALONG WITH PRETTY COLD 500 MB
TEMPS. WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN FA/SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
FIRST WAVE DROPS DOWN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC FRONT EARLY FRI WITH
ANOTHER EARLY SAT. WILL LEAVE REMAINDER OF FORECAST DRY ATTM AS
TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT. WILL NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPS
EITHER...WHICH LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL.

.FGF...NONE.

GUST/GODON

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-026>030-
038-039-049-052>054-252100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
145 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY EVENING ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM PEMBINA...THROUGH GRAND FORKS AND SOUTHWEST
THROUGH JAMESTOWN INTO NORTHCENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A SURFACE TROF
FROM WINNIPEG TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL FOCUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HEAT INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
AND BUILD NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL UP TO ONE
INCH IN DIAMETER AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE INTENSE LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

GUST