Flash Flooding in Indiana, September 24, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 AM EST WED SEP 24 2003

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NEAR 08Z TSRA WERE MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
/FA/. CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE W AS WELL. THESE ARE DUE
TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL USE A BLEND. ON
SATURDAY STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH GFS NOW FASTER WITH RAIN THAN
ETA WHILE CANADIAN IS DRIER. WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP SATURDAY THE
SAME AS PREV FORECAST BUT ADD A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN AFT MID FRI
NIGHT.

SCT TSRA WILL BE ONGOING AT ISSUANCE TIME ACROSS NRN FA SO WILL HAVE
TO INCLUDE SCT WORDING EARLY TODAY. AS STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION
MOVES E OF THE FA TSRA WILL END EARLY TODAY AND CLOUDS SHOULD THIN
OUT THIS AFTN. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING
THE INSTABILITY. DECENT WIND FIELDS INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
IF ALL THE ELEMENTS COME TOGETHER /MOISTURE AND ENOUGH SUN FOR GOOD
INSTABILITY/. FRONT ENTERS NWRN FA LATE TODAY...NEAR 00Z. THUS PLAN
TO KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY TODAY EXCEPT FOR FAR SRN FA WHERE
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC DUE TO LATE ARRIVAL OF FRONT. GOOD WARM
ADVECTION AT THE SFC...BUT EXACTLY HOW TEMPS RESPOND WILL DEPEND ON
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. IF PLENTY OF SUN TEMPS COULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN
MAV NUMBERS. HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL GO WARMER THAN MAV BUT
NOT AS HIGH AS FWC/ETA.

FRONT MOVES THRU THIS EVE. WILL GO HI CHC POPS NW...BUT WILL GO A
LITTLE LOWER SE AS FRONT WILL REACH THERE AFTER LOSS OF HEATING.
WILL KEEP CHC SHRA AFTER FROPA AS UPPER TROF STILL MOVING INTO FA.
GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE CLOSE AND LOOK REASONABLE WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN.

SOME CLOUDS POSS ACROSS NRN FA ON THU WITH COLD AIR ALOFT BUT STILL
PTSUNNY.

.IND...NONE

CS

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-251100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
600 AM EST WED SEP 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...BUT SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP. THE STORMS SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN
ADDITION...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS
WELL.