Tornado and Hail in Indiana, May 10, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
230 AM EST SAT MAY 10 2003

SVR POTENTIAL AGAIN A CONCERN TODAY AND TNGT AS STG CD FNT IS FINALLY
POISED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE MSP AND OH VLYS.

KIND-88D PIX WERE SHOWING CLASSIC SUPERCELL MOVING ACRS OUR FAR SRN
FA EARLY THIS AM WITH BASEBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED ACRS MARTIN COUNTY.
OTHER STG STORMS WERE MOVING INTO OUR NWRN COUNTIES ATTM. LATEST SFC
ANLYS HAD AN OCCLUDED FNT FM LK MI TO THE NRN PLAINS WITH A WARM FNT
EXTENDING FM THE TRIPLE PT SE ACRS XTRM NERN INDIANA AND INTO NRN WV
AND A CD FNT FM SRN LK MI THROUGH NCNTRL MO AND INTO NRN OK.
FINALLY...DRY LINE EXTENDED FM A WV ALONG THE FNT ACRS NRN OK TO
WCNTRL TX. UPR FLOW FEATURED FAST SW FLOW ACRS THE FA WITH AN
SEPARATE UPR LOWS ACRS NRN MN AND NWRN CO.

MODELS AGREE ON LIFTING ERN OK S/W NE INTO SWRN PARTS OF THE FA BY
12Z THIS MRNG AND INTO IWXS AREA BY 18Z. MEANWHILE...S/W ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE CO UPR LOW TO MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS DEEPENING
THE SFC LOW THERE. SHARP UPR TROF THEN PUSHES THE CD FNT ACRS THE FA
OVRNGT TNGT. PREFER SLOWER ETA AS SUPPORTED BY UKMET AND CANADIAN PER
THE PMDHMD. FA IN MODERATE RISK TODAY. BELIEVE THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
WEAKENING THIS MRNG PER MODEL INSTABILITY PROGS AND ATMS SHOULD
RELOAD INVOF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW IN THE KC AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW CAPES TO 1500 J/KG TNGT AS FNT APROACHES COMBINED WITH
ELONGATED AND STG UVM FIELD AND STG 40-50 KT SHEAR WITH SOME VEERING.
AGREE WITH SPC MOD RISK WITH WIND DAMAGE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT BUT HAIL AND SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES ALSO PSBL. LATEST 3 HR FFG
VALUES ARE VERY LOW LESS THAN AN INCH IN PLACES AND PRECIP H20 VALUES
GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES. SO...WL ISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND
TNGT. BIG CHANGE FINALLY COMES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CD FNT
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER BREEZY WITH STG
GRADIENT AS SFC LOW LIFTS NE INTO ONT BY SUN NGT. CU DEVELOPMENT
PROGS INDICATING LOTS OF CU AROUND ON SUNDAY AND MODELS BRING
WRAPAROUND AND SMALL RW CHC TO NRN ZONES SUN NGT. THUS...WL KEEP
SMALL POPS GOING N.

MOS REMARKABLY CLOSE AND APPEARS TO HANDLE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASSES
QUITE WELL.

.IND...FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TNGT.

KOCH

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
518 AM EST SAT MAY 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AS A
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...BUT ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED
TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE THEY WILL BE
NEEDED TONIGHT...HOWEVER.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL...

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IND (ALL LOWER CASE)

KOCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT : CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
0406 AM EST SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1159 PM    WASHINGTON                IN   1.75 IN HAIL
05/09/03   DAVIESS

KOCH