Damaging Winds in Indiana, June 29, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
300 PM EST SUN JUN 29 2003

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

EARLIER A FEW STORMS FIRED UP IN OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES AND MOVED
EASTWARD BUT DIDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH. SOME STORMS HAVE FIRED UP IN
ELKHART AND LAGRANGE COUNTIES AND THERE ARE SOME STRONGER ONES DOWN
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. BECAUSE OF ALL THIS THREW IN A
CHANCE FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN OUR EASTERN PART. INDICIES
SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY BUT NOTHING IS TOO GREAT. FRONT IS JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST AND SOME BOUNDARIES SETTING UP IN THE ZONAL FLOW.
FRONT SHOULD THEN SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD TO LEAVE TONIGHT DRY.
THEN DEPENDING ON THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONT TOMORROW COULD HAVE
SOME STORMS THROUGH OUR VERY SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS MATCHES UP WITH
OUR SOUTHERN NEIGHBORS. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD THEN
BE DRY AS THAT FRONT IS THEN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED TO STILL
BE ON TRACK.

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

FEW CHANGES TO EXTENDED GRIDS THIS PACKAGE. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO WEEKEND WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY AND GULF MOISTURE. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME TYPE OF MCS NORTH OF FRONT CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES. CANNOT BE SURE IF THIS IS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OR NOT. EVEN IF
NOT...MODELS STILL INDICATE WEEK FRONT CROSSING AREA FRI AND HANGING
UP NEAR OR JUST TO SOUTH. ALSO OF INTEREST WILL BE MOISTURE COMING
NORTH OUT OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ITS MOVEMENT AND INTERACTION WITH
FRONT. TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PINPOINT ALL THIS SO WL CONTINUE CURRENT
FORECAST. TRENDED TOWARD HPC GRAPHICS/FORECAST FOR MOST OF EXTENDED
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH GOING FORECAST.

.IWX...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.

BML/SLL

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-301030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
525 AM EST SUN JUN 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY. SOME SCATTERED
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING...BUT
ADDITIONAL STORMS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE
MORNING. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND INTENSIFY ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO AND NORTHEAST INDIANA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SOME OF THE STORMS IN NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LOGANSPORT INDIANA TO LIMA OHIO LINE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SATURDAY. IT
IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME IF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST INDIANA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES, OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IWX