Tornadoes and Hail in Indiana, July 21, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
130 AM EST MON JUL 21 2003

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS FCST WL BE SVR WX AND TIMING/CVRG OF TRWS THE
NEXT FEW PERIODS AS MODELS (ESP THE ETA) ARE NOW SLOWING UP FROPA.
LATEST SFC ANLYS HAD THE FNT FM LK SP SW THROUGH XTRM NWRN IL AND
INTO NRN MO AND FINALLY SCNTRL KS. KIND-88D WAS SHOWING PRETTY
INTENSE TRW ACTIVITY MOVING SE ACRS THE IWX FA WHERE THERE WAS A TRW
WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EST. UA PATTERN WAS SHOWING AN UPR LOW ACRS ERN
CANADA WITH A TROF EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE UPR MIDWEST. SIG S/W WAS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF ACRS NRN WI WITH ANOTHER SOMEWHAT
WEAKER S/W FM SRN WI TO NRN MO.

MODELS ARE NOW APART ON FROPA WHICH THE ETA BRINGS TO ABOUT A
FWA-LAF LINE AROUND 00Z TUE AND TO THE OH RVR BY 12Z TUE.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS AND NGM ARE FM 6-12 HRS FASTER. LOOKING AT 06Z
SFC PROGS...GFS WAS OVERDEVELOPING A WV ALONG THE FNT ACRS WCNTRL
IL. THE GFS CONTS THIS TREND AND EVEN TAKES IT DOWN TO 999 MB AS IT
MOVES IT ACRS NRN INDIANA THIS MRNG. ETA HOLDS ON TO THE WEAKER
CURRENT SETUP WITH BROAD AREA OF SFC LOW PRES FM LK SP ACRS LWR MI
TO LK ONT AND THUS A SLOWER FROPA. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...FAVOR
SLOWER ETA WHICH IN TURN FAVORS HIGHER MET/FWC LIKELY POPS TODAY AND
TNGT. ETA CAPES RUN FM AROUND 2500 NW-3500 SE LATE THIS AFT. ETA
INITIALIZED WELL WITH INSTABILITY FIELD BASED ON LAMP CAPES. CURRENT
30KT LOW LVL JET SHIFTS TO THE OH RVR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER ENERGY
DIVING SE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPR TROF ALLOWS UPR JET TO DROP
DOWN ACRS THE FA TODAY. IN FACT...95 KT H250 JET STREAK MOVES ACRS
NCNTRL KY EARLY TUE AFT WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP SOME STG STORMS
AROUND INTO TUE ESP ACRS SRN FA. WITH UPR TROF STILL TO THE W ON TUE
PROVIDING NICE W-E UVM FIELD ACRS THE FA AND DEEP MOIST
LINGERING...WL KEEP GOOD CHC POPS N AND LIKELY POPS S ON TUE.

MOS TEMPS VERY CLOSE ESP CONSIDERING FRONTAL PLACEMENT ISSUES.
SO...PLAN ON STICKING CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

.IND...NONE.

KOCH

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-221100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
227 AM EST MON JUL 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. ONE AREA OF
STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE LAFAYETTE AND TERRE
HAUTE AREAS AND SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS INDIANAPOLIS AND
EASTWARD. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. MORE ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIKELY ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AGAIN POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEVERE WEATHER DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY
AS OF NOW...HOWEVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL...

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IND (ALL LOWER CASE)

KOCH