High Wind in Illinois, May 6, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
425 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

.OVERVIEW...SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER JET REMAINS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTING LOTS OF WEATHER.  NEXT SHORT WAVE IN
KANSAS PRODUCING AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE WAVE
NOW IN SW MISSOURI.  ANALYSIS SUPPORTS RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH AREA LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PASSES SOUTH.
STRONG AND DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONTO PACIFIC COAST SUPPORTING
LOTS OF ENERGY TO ARRIVE BY LATE THURSDAY.  LOW 70 DEWPOINTS INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA GIVING LOTS OF FUEL TO STORMS IN MISSOURI ALONG 850
MB FRONT.

...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NEAR TERM
ISSUE AND THEN STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN INTO SUNDAY LONGER ISSUE...

.DIAGNOSIS AND DAYS 1-3...ETA AND MESO-ETA QPF SUFFERING ALL TOO
COMMON FEEDBACK ISSUES TONIGHT OF UP TO 2 INCHES NOT REASONABLE.
NEVERTHELESS...VORT AND LATEST NOWCAST TOOLS SUPPORT A MORE TEPID GFS
AND UKMET SOLUTIONS OF MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER GENERALLY AMOUNTS LESS THAN HALF INCH.  UPPER VORT MAX TRACK
SUPPORTS CLOUDS AND SOME MORNING RAIN WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY ON COOL
SIDE WITH NE WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THUS BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
THURSDAY GETS FUN...LARGE SCALE INTENSE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG
SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND TRIGGER
SUPPORT LOTS OF RAIN AND STORMS WITH SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINS...SOME
FLOODING POTENTIAL. THEN FRIDAY WARM FRONT PASSES FOR FIRST WARM AND
HUMID DAY WITH DEWPOINTS PUSHING 70.  FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
SUPERCELLS LATE WITH CAPES OF 2500+ J/KG LIS LESS THAN -8 AND BRN 25
TO 50...NOT TO MENTION LOTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR...OH BOY  NEED TO
WATCH THIS.  HIGHS TO REACH WELL INTO 80S...RISK OF TORNADOES BETTER
DEFINED NEXT 24 HOURS.

EXPECT MOST AREAS TO RECEIVE PERIODIC RAINS TOTALING WELL IN EXCESS
OF 1-2 INCHES BY SUNDAY PM WITH LOCALLY 5 INCHES OR MORE.  THIS
AMOUNT OF WATER ON TOP OF ALREADY MOIST SOILS...SIGNIFICANT RISK OF
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER.  UPDATED HWO AND ALSO ISSUED ESF FOR
HEAVY RAIN RISKS.

.EXTENDED (SAT-TUE)...ALL INDICATIONS OF VERY STRONG SURFACE LOW AND
UPPER TROUGH TO PASS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ROUNDS OF STORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER AN ALMOST GIVEN. THEN MAJOR
COOL DOWN TO TEMPS AT LEAST 2-3 CATEGORIES BELOW MEX/FMR AS MODELS
HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH CAA BEHIND SYSTEM WHICH LATEST UKMET AND GFS-
AVN SUGGEST WITH 850 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
MONDAY FOR VERY COOL TEMPS INTO MIDWEEK AS LARGE SURFACE CANADIAN
MOVES IN.

APOLOGIZE FOR LATE AFD DUE TO WORKLOAD ISSUES TODAY.

DVN...
IA...NONE
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

NICHOLS

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-071000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

...LOTS OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT 5 DAYS WITH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
AND FLOODING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING
RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34...AND
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.  RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
BE MODERATE...GENERALLY BETWEEN .25 AND .75.  SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME PEA SIZED HAIL...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A SERIES OF VIGOROUS DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE FIRST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
LOTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE RISK
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY.  SOME MORE STORMS MAY REDEVELOP
LATE FRIDAY WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THEM TO BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  AN EVEN
STRONGER AND COMPLEX SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL TRIGGER EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH MORE HEAVY RAINS TIL LATE SUNDAY.
MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH LOCALLY 5 INCHES OR MORE.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE FLOODING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SEVERAL EPISODES OF STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

UPCOMING SPOTTER TRAINING CLASSES:

May 6, 2003:  Training - Chadwick, IL -  7 pm

Severe weather and tornado spotter training will be conducted in
Chadwick, Illinois (Carroll County) at the fire department at 7 pm.
This will be a free 2 hour class.  For additional information,
contact county ESDA coordinator Greg Miller.

May 7, 2003:  Training - DeWitt, IA - 10 am

Spotter training will be conducted at the DeWitt DOT garage at 10
am.

May 8, 2003:  Training - What Cheer, IA - 7 pm

Severe weather and tornado spotter training will be conducted in
What Cheer, Iowa (Keokuk County) at the fire department at 7 pm.
This will be a free 2 hour class.  For additional information,
contact Terry Burger at 641-634-2361.

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn

NICHOLS