Hail in Illinois, April 25, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
320 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2003

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CLOSED LOW OVER SW MISSOURI WITH
COVERAGE IN A DIURNAL WANE. MODELS SIMILAR IN THEIR FORECAST
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER AND SFC LOW THROUGH TONIGHT...TAKING BOTH
ALMOST DUE EAST ACROSS THE FA TODAY. SO...FOR TODAY...WILL MAINTAIN
FAIRLY HIGH POPS...BUT BACK DOWN FROM CATEGORICAL...SINCE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE EXISTS TO OUR WEST. WILL USE LIKELY
TERMINOLOGY AND GO WITH POPS 60-70 PERCENT. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO
FLARE UP AGAIN...AS CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY
COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. EAST 1/2 OF
THE FA IN A SLIGHT RISK PER DAY 1 FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
WILL MAINTAIN EVENING CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA...THEN GO WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FROM MIDNIGHT ON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS GOING DRY FORECAST ON TRACK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS OUTPUT TRENDING AWAY FROM CHANCE OF CONVECTION
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GFS SETS UP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH...RATHER THAN PUSHING IT SOUTH TOWARD OUR FA SUCH AS THE ETA
SUGGESTS...LATE MONDAY. NEW 00 UTC CANADIAN SUPPORTS THE GFS TREND
KEEPING QPF...FRONTAL POSITION NORTH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON POPS
TIL WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF FWC/MAV AND ETA12 TEMPS FOR MAX/MIN
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENT LOCAL FORECAST VALUES LINE
UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE GUIDANCE.

.PAH...NONE.

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-261000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
410 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY EAST
OF A LINE FROM EVANSVILLE INDIANA...TO HARRISBURG ILLINOIS TO
MAYFIELD KENTUCKY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...ARE BOTH FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA TODAY. THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AGAIN
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
SLIGHT RISK AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS. A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY FOR WESTERN
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

KYZ006-008-009-011-012-250800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
220 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2003

...LOCAL WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE WITH SMALL LINE OF STORMS
IN THE PURCHASE AREA OF WESTERN KENTUCKY...

AT 220 AM...A SMALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ABOUT 5 MILES IN
WIDTH...WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF MAYFIELD TO LYNNVILLE IN
GRAVES COUNTY KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST
AROUND 35 MPH...AND SHOULD REACH NEAR GRAND RIVERS AND NEW
CONCORD KENTUCKY BY 3 AM.

LOCAL WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH AN HOUR...
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...HAIL UP TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH MAY OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.

SMITH