Hail in Illinois, April 20, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1230 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2003

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WI WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST THROUGH STL TO NEAR WEST PLAINS.
ISODROSOTHERMS SHOW TOUNGE OF MOISTURE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH LOWER TO MID 60S OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW.

THE 12Z SUN MODEL RUNS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOBE OR SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND HELP EJECT THE SURFACE FEATURE
THROUGH THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. EVENTHOUGH MOS GUIDANCE IS GIVING
LESS THAN 20 POPS...STILL THINK TSRAS ARE LIKELY WITH +TSRA
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THUS WILL USE EVENING TYPE WORDING IN AFTN
ISSUANCE. WILL DETERMINE BEAKOUT CLOSER TO PRESS TIME. CAPES WILL BE
1000 TO 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 850 MB JET NOSING INTO THE
HEART OF THE FA EXPECT SOME DEVELPMNT THIS AFTERNOON AS PER SWODY1.
LINES ARE THE MOST PROBABLE FEATURE EXPECTED WITH A BOW ECHOES
POSSIBLE. NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS OR
TORNADOES BUT WOULD NOT RULE THEM OUT COMPLETELY. WW WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...NEAR
TO THE LOW CENTER...AS PER COORD WITH SPC.  OTHERWISE EXPECT CHCS OF
PRECIP TO END TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHC RETURNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FWC AND MAV IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPS AND WILL FOLLOW TREND.

.PAH...NONE.

KH

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-211000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1237 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138 IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA UNTIL 600 PM...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FOUR STATE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA IS EXPECTED TO
BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...THE THREAT SHOULD
EXTEND SOUTH INTO WEST KENTUCKY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND APPEAR
TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TORNADO AS
WELL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...DEPARTING
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ILZ076>078-082-083-INZ081-082-085>088-202100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1230 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138 IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH LATE TODAY.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WAYNE...EDWARDS...WABASH...HAMILTON...AND
WHITE.

IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...GIBSON...PIKE...POSEY...VANDERBURGH...WARRICK
AND SPENCER.

THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT (600 PM EST).