Wildfire in Idaho, August 1 to 5, 2003

SOUTHEAST IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
230 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2003

...SHORT TERM...ANOTHER HOT AND DRY ONE WITH MID/UPPER 90S...

LATEST H20 SATIMGS AND MODEL DATA SHOW THE H5 RIDGE AXIS IS
ORIENTATED NW TO SE...FROM SOUTHEASTERN OREGON INTO NORTHERN UTAH.
STABLE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS TODAY...THUS MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NEAR THE UT/ID BORDER.  LIGHT WINDS WILL
RESULT IN HAZY CONDITIONS IN A FEW AREAS AS SMOKE FROM RECENT FIRES
LINGERS.  OTHERWISE...SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS AND CUMULUS CLOUDS
TODAY...BUT THERE ARE NO GOOD TRIGGERS OTHER THAN THE NORMAL
HEATING/OROGRAPHICS IN TRYING TO GENERATE TSTORMS.  HOWEVER...VERY
LITTLE CAPE AND A LOT OF CIN WILL NEGATE TSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE MTS...THUS WILL KEEP FORECAST AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS RIGHT ALONG/NEAR THE ID/UT BORDER...THIS IS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC
OF POPS IS WARRANTED WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE
SIDE OF RIDGE AXIS.  H7 TEMPS FALL FROM +19C ON THURSDAY TO +17C
THIS AFT...SO WILL LOWER THE SFC HIGHS ON AVERAGE BY 3F TO 4F OVER
THURSDAYS READINGS...BUT WE ARE STILL WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF
RECORD HIGHS FOR IDA AND PIH...SO WILL MENTION NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN
THOSE ZONES.  ON SATURDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT H5 RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE NORTH TO SOUTH AND MOVES OVER WESTERN WY BY
EVENING.  A SHORT WAVE RIDES UP IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INTO THE
MAGIC VALLEY BY 00Z AND INTO THE CENTRAL MTS BY 06Z.  SLIGHT CHC
POPS NEAR/ALONG THE ID/WY BORDER...CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
CHC OF POPS FURTHER WEST...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE SEEMS REASONABLE
BY THE AFT/EVE HOURS.  SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR SATURDAY AND
THEN ALL 80S ON SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL H7 COOLING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFT/EVE BRINGING CHC POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA.

...LONG TERM...THREAT OF AFT/EVE TSTORMS CONTINUE...

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
STAGNANT.  MAIN FEATURES INCLUDE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...THE H5 RIDGE AXIS FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WYOMING...AND A
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.  THIS TROUGH WILL SPIN WEAK SHORTWAVES
INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND UPPER H5 HIGH INTO WEDS...THUS SLIGHT CHC OF POPS
REMAINS A GOOD BET DURING THE AFT/EVE HOURS.  THE H5 HIGH BEGINS TO
EXPAND AND RETROGRADE WEST ONCE AGAIN AS THE EAST COAST LOW/TROUGH
DAMPENS OUT.  THINGS BECOME DRY AND HOT BEGINNING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST AS IS WITH
PRECIP THREAT CONFINED INTO WEDS THEN DRY THEREAFTER.  LOOKING
240HRS OUT...THE MRF HAS A 599DM HIGH SITTING OVER THE UT/CO BORDER
WITH H7 TEMPS OF +19C BY SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK (AUG 10TH).  IF THIS
PANS OUT THEN HIGHS WOULD BE AROUND 100F ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEKEND.

K. SIMOSKO

KSFX...OPERATIONAL...VCP 21.

.PIH...NONE.

IDZ017>023-031-032-010330-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
315 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO

.DAY ONE...

RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ZONES 405/406/410/411 UNTIL 9
PM THIS EVENING.  THE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS...ALL WEATHER REPORTS ARE
MUCH APPRECIATED AND IMPORTANT...EVEN OBSERVED WEATHER THAT DOES
NOT REACH SEVERE CRITERIA.  TRAINED SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR OTHER
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.