Damaging Winds and Heavy Rain in Georgia, September 22, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
215 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2003

.OVERVIEW...
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED...SWINGING
INTO EASTERN PORTION OF THE U.S.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT QUICKLY
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GULF STATES INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO LOWER
MISSISSIPPI / TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM
EASTERN KENTUCKY TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA IN LINE WITH COLD FRONT...
MOVING QUICKLY EAST AT AROUND 30 MPH.  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
POSSIBLE...IN LINE WITH SPC SLIGHT RISK...MAINLY FOR POSSIBLE
40-50KT WINDS GUSTS IN ELEVATED TERRAIN.  SOUNDING AND MODEL DATA
SHOWING 40 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUPPORTING WIND GUST
POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THREAT ISOLATED.  DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK IN BEHIND FRONT WITH GRADUAL DROP OFF OF POPS NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.EXTENDED...
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AREA IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME
FRAME.  IN ADDITION...MODELS HINTING AT SECONDARY LOW IN EASTERN
GULF SPREADING SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW OVER PSEUDO-WEDGE.  BIG
QUESTION AND UNCERTAINTY HINGES ON HOW AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE ACROSS CENTRAL U.S....AND THUS WHERE SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK.
HAVE ADDED CHANCE POPS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA FOR
NOW...ELSEWHERE DRY.  GFS HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON COOLER AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL EXPECTING TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
GFS TRYING TO BRING ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS IN BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

KATL 62 82 58 82 / 40 00 00 10
KAHN 62 84 57 82 / 50 10 00 10
KGVL 61 82 56 80 / 30 00 00 10
KRMG 60 82 56 85 / 20 00 00 10
KCSG 65 86 60 85 / 60 10 00 10
KMCN 65 85 58 83 / 70 20 10 10

.ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

JCD/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1140 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2003

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-222126-
1140 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT FARTHER EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST FROM MISSISSIPPI. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA LATE TODAY.

..PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM MISSISSIPPI IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST GEORGIA BY THE END OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON
THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF EXPECTED SEVERE STORMS...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTER GROUPS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
LISTEN FOR LATER UPDATES.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

GAZ005>007-012-221845-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN IN GORDON...GILMER...
FANNIN AND MURRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 144 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SOLID LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS FROM 13 MILES NORTH OF ETON TO 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CALHOUN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAIN SHOULD FALL IN A PERIOD OF ABOUT AN HOUR AS THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS
EXPECTED. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.
VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
ONE-QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THIS AREA BY 245 PM EDT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

GAZ019-020-030-221900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
209 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN IN POLK...BARTOW AND
FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 205 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF SHANNON TO
16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CEDARTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN SHOULD FALL IN A PERIOD OF ABOUT AN HOUR AS THIS LINE
OF SHOWERS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS
EXPECTED. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.
VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
ONE-QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 3 PM...
BUT RAINFALL WILL NOT COMPLETELY END UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.