Hail and Damaging Wind in Georgia, March 13, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 AM EST THU MAR 13 2003

CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH AL
AND WEST FL ZONES AHEAD OF A UL SHORT WAVE. STRENGTH AND COVERAGE
HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH AND EXPECT THEM TO CREEP INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS GA AND BIG BEND BEFORE FADING OUT. TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 60S
AND WINDS NEAR CALM. JUST A GENERAL CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED FOR
FA.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE SEEN IN THE AM AS STORMS
CURRENTLY IN THE MS/AL AREA MAKE THERE WAY EAST THIS MORNING. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

FORECAST...SHOWERS/TSTORMS COULD STILL BE LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. BY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE PER LATEST GFS...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GULF STATES REGION BY EARLY FRI.
MODELS CONCUR ON CLOSING OFF THIS UPPER LOW AND KEEP IT AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW HANGING IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SAT...AND BY
SUNDAY SLIDE IT TO THE NE TO SPREAD THE WEALTH. THIS MEANS THAT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND IS EXTREMELY
LIKELY. CURRENT ZFP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON ALL OF THIS MAY LOOK AT
KICKING THE POPS UP SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HPC IS KEEPING THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS MAINLY IN OUR AL AND GA ZONES...WITH 24 HR
QPFS IN THE .25 TO .50 INCH RANGE. AS ALWAYS SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS
MAY SEE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. FL ZONES WILL SEE GOOD
COVERAGE OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MARINE: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MORNING. EXTREMELY LIGHT FLOW HAS
PERSISTED OVERNIGHT AND WILL BECOME SW/W NEAR 10 KTS BY MORNING AS
LOW MOVES TO THE EAST. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED FOR CWF.

FIRE WEATHER: NO CONCERNS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:

TLH  080 058 076 057 5-57
PFN  075 063 073 062 4267
DHN  078 060 070 058 4267
ABY  077 059 071 056 5-67
VLD  080 059 077 057 5-67
CTY  080 060 079 061 5-46

.TLH...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

BOLINSKI

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-141100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
600 AM EST THU MAR 13 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AND
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME STORMS MAY HAVE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. AT THIS TIME NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN IN THE
MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND HALF OF AN INCH...WITH
SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS HIGHER. AT THIS TIME ONLY A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
PRESENT INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS POINT TO THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM TO ENTER INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND DRAG A DECENT
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...AT THIS TIME SPOTTER ACTIVATION
WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY.

.RIP CURRENTS...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW SEAS THERE IS
ONLY A SLIGHT RIP CURRENT THREAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

10-BOLINSKI