Hail and Damaging Wind in Georgia, July 20, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003

250 PUBLIC FORECAST DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE
OFF RAPIDLY WITH THE SETTING SUN. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION GET
BETTER AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. DEEPENS AND SHARPENS UP A BIT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
SAGS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY TUESDAY ALSO. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THIS DRIVES
THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GEORGIA...ENHANCING SURFACE LIFT. CURRENT
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THIS FORECAST AS MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. UPPER FLOW PROGGED TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BY DAY 7 AS UPPER RIDGE SPLITS AND WEAK TROUGHINESS
BEGINS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL INTRODUCE SCATTERED
DIURNAL POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST DAY 7 AS MOISTURE HAS RETURNED
ON SOUTHWEST FLOW BY THEN.

TEMPERATURES SEASONAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

KATL 71 91 71 87 / 20 20 30 50
KAHN 70 90 71 87 / 20 20 30 50
KGVL 68 88 69 84 / 20 20 30 50
KRMG 69 91 70 88 / 20 20 30 50
KCSG 73 92 73 89 / 20 30 30 40
KMCN 72 92 72 90 / 20 30 30 40

.ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS COUNTY WARNING AREA SHOULD
DIE WITH LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BKN CLOUDS 1
TO 2 THOUSAND FEET TO DEVELOP LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...WITH
LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES THAT RECEIVED RAIN. WIDESPREAD VSBYS
5-6 IN HAZE THIS EVENING...LOWERING 1 TO 3 MILES IN FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. FOG AND LIFR CIGS BURNING OFF BY 14Z BUT LOOK FOR
VSBYS 4 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE...AND SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 2 TO 3 THOUSAND
FEET THROUGH LATE MORNING.

20/49

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
615 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY.

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TODAY.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING.

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CAPES
WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 1500 TO 2000 WITH LIFTED INDICES OF
MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5. HOWEVER...WITH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE
AREA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 3 PM TO 8 PM.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ON TUESDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

GAZ016-202100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
429 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN IN WHITE COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM EDT...

AT 425 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST WEST OF HELEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY RESULT IN
FLOODING OF ROADS AND DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. ALSO...THE STORM MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND VERY GUSTY WINDS.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ENDING OVER THE AREA AROUND 500 PM EDT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

GAZ058-059-071-072-082-202200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
508 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR INTENSE LIGHTNING...HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN BIBB...JONES...MONROE...BUTTS
AND JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 503 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM BETWEEN JACKSON AND MONTICELLO
SOUTH TO NEAR MACON. THESE STORMS WERE PRODUCING INTENSE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN
FLOODING OF STREETS AND DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
NEARLY STATIONARY. MOVE INDOORS TO AVOID LIGHTNING STRIKES.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ENDING OVER THE AREA BY 600 PM EDT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.