Tornadoes in Florida, March 27, 2003

SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI
135 PM EST THU MAR 27 2003

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW WELL DEVELOPED MID/UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NOW SOUTH
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND MIGRATING EAST-SOUTHEAST. BASED ON
MOVEMENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE MESOETA...THE LOW SHOULD MOVE
OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND THE MID/UPPER
TROF EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE CWA LATER TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY RADAR AND LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOW CONVECTION FIRING OVER
THE NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. SEVERE TSTM BOX OVER MOST OF
FLORIDA PENINSULA ATTM EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS
AREA WILL BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLY ANOTHER BOX LATER.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EVENING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST. MESOETA AND NGM ARE SIMILAR WITH CHC OF POPS EAST
SECTIONS ON FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE SEABREEZES
MEETING EACH OTHER. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE AVNS SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
AND LOWER MRHS. THE MESOETAS MRH ON SATURDAY LOOKS DRYER SO WILL
KEEP WITH CURRENT FORECAST WITH NO POPS. THE STABLE AIRMASS...MOIST
LOW LEVELS...AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL AID FOG DEVELOPMENT
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
EVENING SUNDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN EARLIER
FORECASTED. LIKELY POPS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BRING IN A MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL KEEP
THE BREEZY WORDING FOR MONDAY. SEVERE A POTENTIAL IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT BUT A LITTLE EARLY TO NAIL IT DOWN. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO
TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MIDWEEK.

MARINE...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND INCREASE IN SPEED SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT. MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY ROUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER GULF
STREAM...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING NORTHEAST AT 10 OR 15 KNOTS BY TUESDAY.

FIRE...NO ISSUES WITH HUMIDITY. PATCHY FOG FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHER
DISPERSION VALUES EXPECTED BY MONDAY.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
PBI BU 068/085 067/086 067 1852000
FLL BU 069/086 072/086 071 1852000
MIA BU 069/086 071/086 071 1852000
APF UU 068/082 066/083 067 1810000

.MIA...NONE.

FLZ063-066>075-272300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1150 AM EST THU MAR 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING,
HAIL, AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS
WILL INITIALLY AFFECT THE GULF COAST AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AND MOVE EAST INTO THE METRO AREAS THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE METROPOLITAN
AREAS OF PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY
BRINGING WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR GLADES...HENDRY...COLLIER...AND
PALM BEACH. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

STAYED TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

HANDEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI, FL
255 PM EST THU MAR 27 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0228 PM   3 MILES NORTH OF NAPLES  FL      TORNADO...A TORNADO WAS
                                           REPORTED BY THE COLLIER
                                           COUNTY EOC AND THE NAPLES
                                           AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL TOWER
                                           THAT A TORNADO TOUCHED
                                           DOWN. THERE WAS A 200
                                           YARD PATH OF DAMAGE TREES
                                           AND PLANTS.