Rip Current in Florida, March 27, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
324 AM CST THU MAR 27 2003

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
REGION WILL SLOWLY SLIP EASTWARD TODAY...AND TAKE THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA COAST INTO THE NE GULF BY THIS
EVENING.  TRACKING OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN BEST MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE AND RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REGION
THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO MAIN FLORIDA THRU THE
AFTERNOON.  WILL SHOW CHANCE SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE NW FLORIDA
COASTAL SECTIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND EASTERN ZONES THRU THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL LEAVE A FAIRLY INACTIVE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...SO LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN AGAIN TILL FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS AS NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
GFS IS SLOWING THINGS DOWN A BIT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...NOW SHOWING
A FROPA LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  THINGS ARE BEGINNING TO LOOK
MORE LIKE A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT AS SHOWERS DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.  THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN WITH RAINS
PERSISTING THRU SATURDAY EVENING...AND MAY NOT PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
TILL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  CLOUDS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FROPA
THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF DOES NOT PUSH EAST TILL
LATE SUNDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON SUNDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLDOWN SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A THREAT OF PATCHY FROST TO MAINLY
INTERIOR SECTIONS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD AND WINDS FALL OFF.  RESIDENTS WITH TENDER SPRING PLANTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.

FIRE WEATHER...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...BUT ONCE AFTERNOON HEATING KICKS IN...EXPECT A SOUTHERLY
WIND TO SET UP...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.  OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WHILE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS RESULT
IN MODERATE DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

MARINE...A WEAK GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS
TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY BECOMING ONSHORE AND INCREASING THRU FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THE FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW IN ITS WAKE.  EXPECTING SCA CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY EVENING.

39/DARBE

PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS...
MOB BB 080/058 081/059 065 39100
PNS BB 077/060 080/061 069 39200
DTS BB 074/060 078/062 070 393-0
GZH BB 079/053 082/059 066 39100
2RO BB 080/054 082/050 056 39001
61A BB 077/056 081/057 065 39001=

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-271700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
602 AM CST THU MAR 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

NO SEVERE OR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SOME OF STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE.  THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.  OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE OTHER DAYS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTER OFFICIALS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REQUIRED THROUGH
TONIGHT.