Damaging Wind in Florida, March 14, 2003

SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI
200 PM EST FRI MAR 14 2003

SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BE THE MAIN PRODUCER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE BEST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...WE STILL SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. PREFER THE MESOETA SOLUTION
BECAUSE THE GFS LOOKS OVERDONE.

WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND GOOD MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. IN FACT...MESOETA H5 TEMPS AROUND
-12C ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND ON SUNDAY H5 TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED FROM -12 TO -13C WHICH WOULD RESULT IN EXCELLENT
INSTABILITY. LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE MAINLY DUE TO
HAIL.

MESOETA SHOWS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS EAST INTO ALABAMA. THIS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE WATER AND BEACH
AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE...AND THEN GIVE GOOD SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. TIMING WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT. WILL UP THE POPS TO LIKELY
AND PUT IN WORDING FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. QPF FROM HPC INDICATES AS MUCH AS A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. A BREAK IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE...AND THOSE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL GO FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE POPS
THAT DAY TOO. RESOLUTION OF THE WAVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
SOMEWHAT IFFY BUT WILL BUY IT FOR NOW.

MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND
THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND STAY SOUTHERLY RIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS BUT THE BIG THREAT THIS
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRE...NO PROBLEMS FOR FIRE WEATHER.

EXTENDED...SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ON
MONDAY...BUT A WEAK TRAILING SHORT WAVE PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER BIG UPPER LOW SPINS UP OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT THE MAIN ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO STAY WAY NORTH OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. A FRONT MAY MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT SHOULD PULL UP STATIONARY AROUND THE LAKE. THIS WILL
AID CONVECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SO...3 TO 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

50

PBI TT 070/084 069/085 071 57453
FLL TT 074/084 072/085 073 57453
MIA TT 074/085 073/085 073 57453
APF TT 068/084 068/085 069 47353

.MIA...NONE

FLZ063-066>075-142300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1010 AM EST FRI MAR 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

A CONTINUING MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH
SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES...WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA INTO
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS HOWEVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.