Tornado in Florida, March 10, 2003

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EST MON MAR 10 2003

...SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND
NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF WINDS PRESENT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO NAPLES.
THIS WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON AS DEPICTED BY MOST OF THE MODELS. HOWEVER...WITH NEXT
IMPULSE COMING IN AT THIS TIME...COULD SEE ENOUGH OF A NORTHWARD
PUNCH OF MOISTURE TO CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF POP NEEDED FOR AFTERNOON
PACKAGE.  OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO DISPERSE AT THIS
HOUR...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH AND
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS
TO SHIFT EAST WITH A MODERATING FLOW DEVELOPING LATE. FEEL WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS TO
SET UP WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS.
MODEL GUIDANCE NOT HINTING AT ANY FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL DYING
FRONT...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY DENSE CONDITIONS.

...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO DAYS AND THE PREVIOUS WEEKS
PATTERN IS THERE WILL BE NO REAL DISTURBANCES TO LIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH. INSTEAD PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH
DYING BOUNDARY WILL MEAN MORE DIURNAL TYPE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
MESO-ETA DOING THE BEST JOB IN HANDLING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND
COLLISIONS THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR THIS
CYCLE. AS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED THIS TIME OF YEAR...EASTERLY FLOW
WITH LOWER 80S TEMPS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
PRIMARILY THE INTERIOR COUNTIES AND BLEEDING OVER INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE GFS SHOWS NO REAL SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL GIVE MORE CREDENCE TO BETTER RESOLUTION
MESO-ETA AND KEEP CURRENT ISOLATED WORDING IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE A TRANQUIL COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 80S IN MOST LOCALES.

...EXTENDED (THURS-SUN)...A DIGGING TROUGH PUSHES ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY
FAST MOVING WITH GOOD PVA...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT.  THICKNESSES AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES RECOVER BY THE
WEEK END IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...MARINE...
STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT EXPECTED ALONG NORTHERN LEG...NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS

BKV 058/080 053/082 0000
TPA 064/080 064/081 0101
GIF 066/081 061/084 0202
SRQ 061/080 062/082 0101
FMY 065/084 065/085 1212

.TBW...NONE.

JTD/DS

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-101400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
534 AM EST MON MAR 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

PATCHY FOG PREVAILS THROUGHOUT WEST PENINSULA FLORIDA THIS MORNING
AND WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A CHARLOTTE HARBOR
...ARCADIA TO SEBRING LINE TODAY...BUT MAINLY DURING THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE
ALWAYS A THREAT IN THE VICINTIY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

DMR