Flood in Florida, June 21 to 25, 2003

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
845 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2003

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN NORTH OF
TAMPA...HOWEVER A BAND OF VERY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS TRAINING ACROSS MANATEE...SARASOTA...AND DESOTO
COUNTIES AND EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS
REGION HAS ALREADY RECEIVED ONE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN DURING
THE PAST TWO HOURS...AND AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
IN A LINE FROM EGMONT KEY TO BOWLING GREEN AND SOUTH TO PUNTA GORDA.
ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.  SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SPREADING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREAD ONSHORE AROUND DAWN ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.  HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD SHIFT A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
BROOKSVILLE AND SARASOTA WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES LIKELY
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  FLOODING IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  RIVER FLOODING HAS
DEVELOPED ON THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER THIS EVENING...AND IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ON A NUMBER OF RIVERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY.  TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN DETERMINING WHICH RIVER BASINS
WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS...BUT EXPECT MODERATE
FLOODING TO DEVELOP ON MANY RIVERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.TBW...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES OF CHARLOTTE...CITRUS...
       HERNANDO...HILLSBOROUGH...LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...
       PINELLAS...SARASOTA...LEE...THROUGH SATURDAY.

EO

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL FL
623 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...A FLOOD WATCH FOR COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...PROVIDING PERIODS OF RAIN WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY MOVING ACROSS MANY OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ARE EXPECTED INCREASE AND COVER ALL OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY LATE MORNING.

THE GREATEST THREAT TODAY WILL BE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD
PRONE AREAS...WITH RAINFALL THAT COULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 2
TO 4 INCH RANGE. BUT LOCALLY...AMOUNTS COULD POSSIBLY BE AS HIGH
AS 6 TO 10 INCHES.

IN ADDITION...THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSE A THREAT
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIFE THREATENING LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

THE MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA
WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY AND SOME FLOODING
IS STILL POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED SUNDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

09

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1235 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2003

...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF LEE COUNTY...
SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH...WILL
AFFECT PINE ISLAND...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS AND ESTERO...UNTIL 115
AM EDT.  RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR MAY CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 30 MPH...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
&&
RESIDENTS...PRIMARILY MOTORISTS...MAY WANT TO AVOID TRAVEL UNTIL THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AFTER 2 AM.

GOLDSMITH