Flood in Florida, June 20 to 26, 2003

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
300 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2003

CURRENTLY...MOSTLY SHOWERS ARE TRACKING ACROSS LEVY AND CITRUS
COUNTIES ATTM...OTHER SHOWERS ARE WELL SOUTH OF KFMY...OTHERWISE
QUIET.

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN NIGHT)...UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/ WITH
TROUGHINESS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE GULF COAST/ AND UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE FLORIDA
KEYS WILL MAINTAIN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...TAPPING ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT WHEN THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE CWFA BECOMING
MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST...BUT CONTINUING TO TAP DEEP MOISTURE DURING
SAT. BY SUN THE UPPER LOW/ WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/ MOVES
OFFSHORE AND RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE MIDWEST WITH FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWEST...WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
BUT WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO CATEGORICAL FOR THE AFTERNOONS TODAY
AND SAT AND ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE FLOOD WATCH FOR COASTAL COUNTIES
TODAY AND DEFER TO LATER SHIFT FOR FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS. BETWEEN
THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL HIGHS SHOULD STAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF
NORMAL AND LOWS WARMER WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF...
TEMPS TO BEGIN NORMALIZING SUNDAY AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
TAPER BACK. HAVE FAVORED THE ETA AND MESO-ETA IN THE SHORT TERM...
THESE HAVE VERIFIED BETTER OVER THE PAST EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MAV MOS FOR TEMPS WHICH HAS BEEN BETTER THAN
THE MET MOS.

EXTENDED (SUN NIGHT-THU)...
APPEARS NOW THAT THE PRODIGIOUS RAINS WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END
SUN NIGHT...AND FULL SUNSHINE WITH MORE COMFORTABLE RH VALUES (AND
NOTICEABLY MORE TOLERABLE NIGHTS) WILL START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  YET
ANOTHER POTENT TROUGH SLIDES OFF THE E COAST LATE SUN...BUT THIS TIME
THE FRONT END OF EXPANDING 500 MB RIDGE NOSES ACROSS THE SE U.S.  THE
NW FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO NE THEN E AT THE SFC...BUT DEEP LAYERED DRYING
(MEAN RH AS LOW AS 15%) ACCOMPANIES THE BUILDING RIDGE...WHICH
LOOKS MORE MAY-LIKE THAN END OF JUNE.

IN ANY CASE...BY THEN WELL WELCOME THE DRYING TREND.  FOR SENSIBLE
WX...EXPECT CLEAR NIGHTS AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH ISOLD AFTN
TSTMS AT BEST MON/TUE...MAINLY S OF TAMPA BAY.  BY WED/THURS...LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SE WHICH WILL DEEPEN MOISTURE A BIT AND
RETURN SCT AFTN/EVE TSTMS TO MOST OF THE AREA.  TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINE...OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
SUNDAY AND LATER...NO PROBLEMS WITH WINDS 10-15KTS OR LESS.

FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
BKV 086/073 086/070 8582
TPA 086/075 086/075 8584
GIF 086/074 086/072 8584
SRQ 086/076 086/075 8584
FMY 087/074 087/072 8584

.TBW...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES OF CHARLOTTE...CITRUS...
       HERNANDO...HILLSBOROUGH...LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...
       PINELLAS...SARASOTA...LEE...THROUGH FRIDAY.

RKR/BG

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-191500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL FL
605 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...A FLOOD WATCH FOR COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...PROVIDING PERIODS OF RAIN WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES AND ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE THIS
MORNING WILL BE MOVING ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING AMD
OVER INLAND COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE.

THE GREATEST THREAT TODAY WILL BE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD
PRONE AREAS...WITH RAINFALL THAT COULD LOCALLY BE AS HIGH AS 4 TO
5 INCHES.

HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSE A THREAT WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIFE THREATENING LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

...A FLOOD WATCH FOR COASTAL COUNTIES CONTINUES FRIDAY...

THE MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA
WITH THE THREAT OF FLOODING EXISTING INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

09

FLZ039-042-201000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
315 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2003

...HEAVY RAINS HEADED FOR CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH DAYBREAK.  MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
ONSHORE BETWEEN CRYSTAL RIVER AND YANKEETOWN AS OF 3 AM...AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL ARRIVE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM.

AREAS OF NORTHERN CITRUS COUNTY EXPERIENCED FLOODING THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THE GROUND REMAINS VERY SATURATED.  LOCAL RAINS OF
MORE THAN 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...AND MAY QUICKLY PRODUCE STREET
FLOODING AGAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES...AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS...LATER THIS MORNING.

BSG