Tornado in Florida, June 19, 2003

SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI
1240 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2003

SURFACE RIDGE HAS MANAGED TO STAY IN PLACE OVER OUR ZONES AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS REMAINED TO OUR NORTH.  UNFORTUNATELY TODAY THE
MYNN SOUNDING WAS MISSING SO HAVE TO USE THE GOES SOUNDINGS FOR THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THESE SHOW THAT THE DRY AIR MADE IT ALL THE WAY
TO GULF STREAM SO IT IS REALLY CLOSE.  OUR FLORIDA SOUNDINGS EVEN
GIVE A HINT THAT WE ARE SEEING SOME OF THE UPPER LOWS CIRCULATION
ALTHOUGH NOT THE DRY AIR.  THE UPPER LOW NEAR HISPANIOLA HAS BEEN
MOVING VERY SLOW AND IT ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED SOME.  IT
APPARENTLY IS RESPONDING TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. SO AM SWITCHING OVER TO LEAVING THE WESTERN END OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER US THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH.  NOW EXPECT TO SEE SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO KEEP US OUT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC IS STILL THERE BUT
TOO WEAK TO BE OF A CONCERN.

IN THE LONGER TERM WE HAVE MORE UNCERTAINTY.  WE HAVE THE TROPICAL
WEATHER IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO STILL TRYING TO DECIDE WHAT IT
IS GOING TO DO.  WE HAVE OUR UPPER ATLANTIC LOW THAT MIGHT END UP
BEING ABSORBED INTO THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE
EASTERN U.S. COAST ON THE WEEKEND.  IF THIS IS THE CASE THEN WE
COULD BE UNDER SOME ELONGATED NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WOULD
ALSO BE THE CASE IF SOMETHING CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  IF THIS DOES NOT COME TO PAST THEN WE WILL PROBABLY
BE UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE.  AT THE SURFACE WE SHOULD PROBABLY STAY
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE POSSIBLY WITH THE RIDGE LINE SHIFTED NORTH OF
OUR ZONES.  EITHER WAY WE DO NOT DRY OUT ANY MORE AND THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE WOULD BE THAT IN THE EASTERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD
SHIFT TO A MORE MORNING AND NIGHTTIME RAIN REGIME.

IN THE BOATING WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD CONDITIONS WITH
MOSTLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.

HUMIDITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE FIRE DANGER HIGHLIGHTS.

PBI TT 076/090 075/090 075 4746
FLL TB 079/090 078/090 078 2534
MIA TB 079/090 078/090 077 2534
APF TT 076/086 078/087 078 4746

.MIA...NONE.

FLZ063-066>075-191500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
500 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...MODERATE TO HIGH LIGHTNING RISK THIS AFTERNOON...

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY.
THE SLIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT STEERING THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONCENTRATE THE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INLAND FROM THE WEST
COAST...ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS TOWARD PALM BEACH COUNTY THOUGH
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY METROPOLITAN AREAS WILL SEE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35
MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS. DUE TO THE VERY
MOIST SOUTH FLORIDA SOIL CONDITIONS...THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY
LEAD TO TEMPORARY PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.
FOR INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT
ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.