Damaging Wind in Florida, July 18, 2003

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED PRELIM NUMBERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
207 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

.DISCUSSION...LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUES TO SHOW A TREND OF THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
CARVE OUT A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SUMMERTIME TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.  DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN WHICH DAYS WILL
SEE THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE AS INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXES RIPPLE
THROUGH MEAN TROUGH.  THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN AT LEAST
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS.  WOULD EXPECT THAT ON AT LEAST A FEW
OF THE DAYS...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS
BOTH EAST AND WEST COAST BOUNDARIES ARE STARTING TO GET ACTIVE WITH
SOME COOLER/DRIER AIR STILL PRESENT ALOFT.  EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE A BOUNDARY COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR...POSSIBLY NEAR THE I-4
CORRIDOR...AND PLAN ON SCT POPS THERE...SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST STEERING (700 MB) FLOW PROGGED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE.  H25 CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING BACK
ACROSS THE AREA SAT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH ALOFT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.  EXPECT THAT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE ABLE
TO FORM ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST SAT AND MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY.  MODEL
POPS CONTINUE TO COME IN AT 30/40 PERCENT.  NOT CERTAIN ABOUT THE
EFFECTS OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT SO WILL GO WITH 40 POPS EACH
AFTERNOON SINCE THE SHORTWAVE SUNDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE.

NEXT WEEK...GFS SHOWING SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE AREA
MONDAY.  MAIN INCREASE IN GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE JUST TO OUR
NORTH...WHICH MAY ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO FORM.  THIS COULD RESULT IN
AN ACTIVE DAY FOR STORMS.  SO PLAN TO BUMP POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT.

SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW IS PROGGED TO INCREASE BY TUE AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS A FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.  WILL STAY WITH UNIFORM 40 POPS AS SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW CONTINUES.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE LATEST GFS STALLS THE FRONT OUT WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STRONGER THAN NORMAL BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  WE SHOULD STAY IN A MOIST FLOW...THOUGH
BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME AS BROAD RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A
LITTLE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC.

.MARINE...DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN LEG STARTING
SAT NIGHT.  WILL NOT GO AS STRONG AS THE GFS WINDS SHOW FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...KEEPING 10 TO 15 IN THE NORTH AND 10 KNOTS IN THE SOUTH.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 074/092 074/091 074 2424
MCO 074/092 074/091 074 3424
MLB 074/090 074/090 074 2424
VRB 073/090 073/090 073 2424

.MLB...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM...LASCODY

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
182000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
515 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE WELL INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST AROUND MID DAY AND MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH.

ALSO...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN CAUSING TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

COOLER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO SOME
STRONG STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR. MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE
SHELTER IF LIGHTNING STORMS APPROACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING STORMS BACK TO THE EAST COAST EACH EVENING
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IF A WARNING IS
ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

JP

FLZ041-141-190015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
714 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

...STORMS WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL VOLUSIA
COUNTY...

AT 707 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LIGHTNING DETECTION
EQUIPMENT INDICATED A LINE OF STORMS WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING FROM 23
MILES NORTHWEST OF ORMOND BY THE SEA TO BARBERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL REACH THE COAST NEAR TOMOKA ESTATES
BY 8 PM.

THESE STORMS ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...TAKE SHELTER IN A BUILDING OR ENCLOSED
AUTOMOBILE. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS FOUND ON A BEACH OR GOLF COURSE
OFFER NO PROTECTION.