Damaging Wind in Florida, April 26, 2003

SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI
345 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2003

RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DUE TO A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THAT REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE
ATLANTIC TAKING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WITH IT...BUT WITH THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...THE MOISTURE COMING INTO THE CWA ON THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN...AND THE LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES
THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
OVER MY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.

THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER MY NORTHERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AS SOME DRY AND COLDER AIR ALOFT COULD MOVE OVER THAT
REGION. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE MAINLY BE WIND DAMAGE.

I WILL THEN LEAVE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
WILL START TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND BE AROUND MY
NORTHERN CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF
AND THIS LOW WILL TRACK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. SO I AM GOING TO RAISE THE POPS TO AROUND 60 PERCENT FOR MY
CWA ON SUNDAY.

WITH THE SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGHS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 90 ALONG THE EAST
COAST...MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND...TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE WEST
COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST
COAST...LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND...TO MID 70S WEST COAST.

.EXTENDED...

THE FRONT OVER MY NORTHERN CWA LATE SUNDAY WILL START TO WASH OUT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLIDE
EAST AND BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS INTO TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WORK WEEK...AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE FROM THE SOUTH PLAIN STATES INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE COASTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

AT THIS TIME THE DISPERSION INDEX JUST UNDER THE CRITICAL VALUES
OVER THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. I AM NOT PLANNING ON PUTTING UP A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS THE NEW MODELS
COME IN WE MIGHT HAVE TO PUT ONE UP LATER.

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 KNOTS TODAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. SO I AM GOING TO PUT THE ATLANTIC WATERS INTO A
ADVISORY TODAY. FOR THE WEST COAST I AM GOING TO HAVE THE WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SO I AM GOING TO PUT THAT REGION
INTO A SCEC. THE WINDS WILL THEN START TO COME DOWN TONIGHT AND BY
SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ALONG THE BOTH COAST. THE WINDS THEN CONTINUE TO COME DOWN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BY MONDAY WILL BE VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR BOTH COAST.

THANKS FOR THE COORD MLB...TBW...AND EYW.

PBI BB 092/073 091/070 083 6366
FLL BB 090/075 090/072 085 4366
MIA BB 091/074 090/071 086 4366
APF BB 083/073 083/070 086 4366

.MIA...SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.

BAXTER