Hail in Colorado, September 10, 2003

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
243 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2003

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN WYOMING BORDER WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER. COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE PUSHED THROUGH
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. VORTICITY
CENTER LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH AND INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD
CORE ARE PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THE SUN GOES DOWN
EARLY THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION NOT WIDE SPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND WILL LET CURRENT FFA EXPIRE WITH AFTERNOON
PACKAGE ISSUANCE.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES NORTHWEST AND SHOULD SUPPORT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PROGGED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
REALLY WIND DOWN THE PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD GET DOWN TO
THE 7000 TO 8000 FOOT LEVEL ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT BUT EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION BELOW 9000 FEET. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES ABOVE 9000 FEET.

MUCH CALMER WEATHER THURSDAY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. WARMER THURSDAY BUT STILL MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR MINIMAL POPS
ACROSS THE ELKHEAD, PARK, AND FLATTOPS THURSDAY. WARMING ALOFT
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DIP TO LEVELS SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. LINDQUIST

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A S/W RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN DRY
AND CALM WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT SATURDAY WITH REMNANT
ENERGY FROM STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. ETA
CLOSES OFF UPPER LOW OVER WRN OKLAHOMA WHILE GFS SIGNIFICANTLY FILLS
THE TROUGH BY 00Z/SUN.  THIS COULD AFFECT MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF
NEXT S/W DROPPING SOUTH FROM ID/MT. UKMET AND ECMWF AGREE MORE WITH
GFS...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLN AT THIS TIME. S/W ENERGY MAY
CLIP THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY...WILL LEAVE CHANCE PRECIP
WITH SNOW STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THINGS CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W RIDGE
APPROACHES. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. FLOW FLATTENS
A BIT MONDAY AS A S/W TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NO THREAT
OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME SUN/MON.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER.  DJN.83

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
TROF SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS. MAIN STORM TRACK FOR PACIFIC DISTURBANCES
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA MONDAY IN MODERATE WNW FLOW ALOFT. ON
TUESDAY IT APPEARS THE WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
ACCORDING TO THE MRF. THIS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS A
NOTCH IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...DROPPED TEMPS A BIT AND INCREASED
RH AND SFC WINDS FOR TUE.

WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ERN UT AND WRN CO AFFECTING
NORTHERN HALF OF AREA MOST. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NW AND DRIES FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS COOLS WITH THICKNESS DECREASES. CJC

.GJT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 900 PM FOR CENTRAL AND
       NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS.

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-111200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
932 AM MDT WED SEP 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND FOR
EASTERN UTAH

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY FOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING...

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. IN ADDITION...SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL OCCUR...WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SNOW
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AT TIMES WHICH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH.

A STRONG FALL-LIKE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH MUCH OF ITS ENERGY FOCUSING ON EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THOUGH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MAINLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PHONE IN REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

NL/DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
0213 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2003

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0144 PM    FRUITVALE                 CO   0.88 IN HAIL
09/10/03   MESA

0200 PM    5 N MACK                  CO   1.00 IN HAIL
09/10/03   MESA

JDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
0246 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2003

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0238 PM    5 N FRUITA                CO   1.00 IN HAIL
09/10/03   MESA

JDC