Tornado and Hail in Colorado, July 7, 2003

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
240 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2003

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TIMING OF SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE CWA STILL
LOOKS TO BE FM 21Z-06Z.  INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES TO 3000
J/KG WITH VALUES OF 91/52 FOR T/TD.  PLENTY OF MSTR WITH THETA-E
RIDGE STRETCHING FM ROUGHLY BURLINGTON TO CHEYENNE.  SOME CIN AS
WELL BUT LIFT FM THE SHORT WAVE ALF OR COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
MAY BE ENUF TO OVERCOME THIS BARRIER.  IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ALSO PROGGED TO BE AROUND AN INCH AS MSTR INCREASE
FM THE WEST ALF AND FM THE E AT THE LOWER LVLS.  ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SVR STORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
MESOETA DOES NOT MOVE 250 MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY LOBE (ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE) OUT OF ERN CO UNTIL 06Z SO THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE ERN BORDER WILL LIKELY NOT DIMINISH UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ON TUESDAY...A DRIER WNWLY FLOW WILL BE OVER CO AS RIDGE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AMPLIFIES.  MSTR IN PROGGED TO DCRS AT ALL
LEVELS SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH LOWER.  WL
MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
ENUF MSTR ALG THE ERN BORDER TO SPARK ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY AFTN SO WL ADD SOME POPS IN THOSE AREAS.  H7 TEMPERATURES
AROUND 17C TUESDAY AFTN WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE M90S...SO
WILL ADJUST THOSE GRIDS AS WELL.  COOPER

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...TROF AND CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU AREA ON NW FLOW
TUE NIGHT...SO MORE TSTMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NERN CORNER.  THEN IT
LOOKS LIKE A DAY OR TWO OF DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW.  WILL REDUCE POPS ON
THU...ONLY IN HIEST ELEVS.  THEN PVS FCST LOOKS GOOD FOR FRI-MON.
GENERALLY DRY NW FLOW FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSTMS SAT WITH ANOTHER WEAK
TROF...TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY DRY SWLY FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MAY
GET SOME TRAPPED LOW LVL MSTR UNDER UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUBBLE UP
FOR AFTN CNVTN...PROBABLY HOLDING OFF TIL NEXT WEEK.  RTG

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-081200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1115 AM MDT MON JUL 07 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY 1 PM IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FRONT FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE...THEN SPREAD EAST INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS SYSTEM
WHICH WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR OVER THE PLAINS
LEADING TO A HIGHER THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...UP TO 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORMS
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF STERLING TUESDAY EVENING.  THE
THEME FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND HOT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 2 PM.

COOPER/GLANCY