Wildfire in California, July 30, 2003

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
845 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2003

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL AREAS INTO THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY INTO THE WEEKEND AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. BY THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED ZONE FORECASTS AND BEEN ISSUING NOWCASTS TO
HANDLE THIS BAND OF RAIN MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION. SOME
TSTORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS DROPPING UP TO 1/3 INCH IN A HALF HOUR. A
BREAK IN PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN THIS MORNING BUT THE
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE COULD SPARK SOME CONVECTION TO ENHANCE THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP WE ALREADY HAVE IN ALL AREAS TODAY. THE REST OF
THIS DISCUSSION IS EXACTLY AS IT WAS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING.

ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN FOR SW CA WITH ABUNDANT MONSOONAL MSTR BEING
FUNNELED WESTWARD ACROSS SRN CA IN THE ELY FLOW BETWEEN THE UPR LVL
HIGH CENTERED OVR NRN CA AND AND AN UPR LVL LOW OFF THE CNTRL COAST
OF BAJA. FLOW ALF WL GRADUALLY BECOME SELY THRU THU AS THE UPR LOW
DRIFTS NWWD AND THE UPR HIGH SEWD.

ELY FLOW TODAY WL BRING ABUNDANT MONSOONAL MSTR AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS AT TIMES...THOUGH TIMING IS DIFFICULT AS
NO WELL DEFINED ORGANIZING MECHANISMS ARE PRESENT. SMALL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVR THE ERN DESERTS OF SRN CA HAS BEEN MOVG STEADILY
WWD OVERNIGHT. THOUGH TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME...IT APPEARS THIS AREA
WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO AT LEAST REACH THE SAN DIEGO AND
SW RIVERSIDE COUNTY MTNS AND DESERTS THRU SUNRISE. ITS POSSIBLE
THIS AREA COULD MOVE WEST OF THE MTNS AFTER SUNRISE...THOUGH
PERHAPS THEN JUST AS SHOWERS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE DESERTS. OVERNIGHT...A
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED A WIND GUST TO 48 MPH A LTL BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT
AN AUTOMATED SENSOR NR MEANS LAKE IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
DESERTS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON
AND COULD DRIFT INTO THE VLYS AND SOME CSTL AREAS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AS THE FLOW ALF BECOMES SELY AND SOME DRYING OCCURS...THUNDERSTORMS
THU WL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND CONFINED TO AREAS FM THE VLYS
INLAND. THE DECRG THUNDERSTORM TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR FRI AND SAT
AS THE FLOW ALF BECOMES SLY.

.SAN...NONE.

MARTIN/MM