Hail in California, July 22, 2003

WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
215 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2003

MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LASSEN AND WASHOE
COUNTIES TO THE NORTH. CUMULUS BUILDUPS WERE OCCURRING IN THE RENO
AREA BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 215 PM.
WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEW POINTS THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. THE MORNING
MODELS CONTINUED THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT OVER THIS AREA AND
PRODUCED SOME QPF OVERNIGHT. WILL ACCEPT THAT SOLUTION AND KEEP
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST NV
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND IF TIMING IS RIGHT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH WEAKENS ON THURSDAY AND FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASES DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PUSH
CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND BY FRIDAY CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CHURCHILL...PERSHING AND MINERAL
COUNTIES. RC

IN THE EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SATURDAY WAS KEPT DRY
ALTHOUGH GFS INDICATED SOME INSTABILITY IN WEST CENTRAL NV. MOST
MOISTURE WAS JUST EAST OF CHURCHILL AND MINERAL COUNTIES WHILE
THERMAL TROUGH FOR FOCUSING SURFACE CONVERGENCE WAS WELL INTO
EASTERN NV BY 00Z...MAKING LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ORGANIZED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN WEST CENTRAL NV.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS DIFFERED IN LOCATION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE REBUILDING RIDGE CENTER. GFS REBUILT THE RIDGE OVER
NV BY MONDAY WHILE CANADIAN MOVED THE CENTER FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
TO SOUTHERN CA AND THE ECMWF HAD AN UNDETERMINED RIDGE LOCATION BY
MONDAY AS IT DID NOT PLOT A 594 DM HEIGHT CONTOUR. WITH THIS
UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS NO CONVINCING REASON TO CHANGE MUCH FROM THE
CURRENT FORECAST WHICH KEEPS SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES EACH AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL
AGAIN APPROACH 100 DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS
SCENARIO OCCURS. MJD

.REV...NONE.

CAZ070>073-NVZ001>005-231400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
650 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NEVADA...THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS WITH BLOWING DUST AND LOCAL BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
BEGINNING THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN A SLOW DRYING AND SLIGHT
COOLING TREND. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECASTS AND
RELATED MESSAGES AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.