Hail in California, April 14, 2003

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
310 PM PDT MON APR 14 2003

CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL SITUATED OFF THE CA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED
FROM BIH TO SBA WHERE PRECIP HAS BEEN FALLING RATHER STEADILY
ALL DAY. WHILE THE REST OF INTERIOR CENTRAL CA IS SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN THE SFC FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE IS
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AS OF THIS WRITING...THE
CATALYST TO TRIGGER CONVECTION IS A VORTICITY MAX WHICH IS
JUST BEGINNING TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFFSHORE. AS THIS ENERGY COMES INLAND...IT WILL DO 3 THINGS.
1...HELP BRING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INLAND. 2...KICK THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FARTHER EASTWARD.  3...HELP FIRE UP SCATTERED
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS
THE SJ VLY. 500 MB TEMPS NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS TROUGH ARE NEAR
-28 C.  THE CORE OF THE 300 MB JET IS NOW ESSENTIALLY SOUTH OF
OUR CWA...WHICH PUTS MOST OF OUR CWA IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT. LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -1 AND -2...COUPLED WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND CAPES AROUND 500 JOULES/KG...SUGGEST THAT A COUPLE
OF TSTMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE
IN THE SJ VLY...ESP FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD. SWING SHIFT
FORECASTERS WILL NEED TO KEEP CLOSE VIGIL ON DOPPLER RADAR THRU
EARLY THIS EVE.

ANOTHER TENTH TO A HALF INCH OF LIQUID LIKELY TO BE SQUEEZED OUT
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY
MOVES INLAND. CONSENSUS WAS TO LET WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE AT
400 PM. HOWEVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU EARLY TONIGHT COULD LEAVE
AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

MUCH OF THE CWA WILL GET A BREAK FROM WET WEATHER TUESDAY THRU AT
LEAST TUE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO CA. THE MODELS
ARE SLOWER BRINGING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO CA DURING
MIDWEEK. HAVE TONED DOWN POPS ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE CWA WED AND
ESSENTIALLY PUSHED PRECIP BACK UNTIL WED NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE
MORNING RUN OF THE GFS DEVELOPS THE NEXT TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW
OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST BY 06Z THU. AS THE COLD CORE OF THIS LOW
TRACKS ACROSS OUR CWA THU...OPPORTUNITY ARISES AGAIN FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTN TSTMS IN THE SJ VLY. (500 MB TEMPS
FORECAST NEAR -27 C).  DURFEE

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST WITH
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH EVERY COUPLE DAYS.  PROGS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN SWINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY. HENCE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE OF
CONVECTION FRIDAY WITH INSTABILITY AND COOL AIR ALOFT. DRY AND
WARMING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS CALIFORNIA. WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY
OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY.  MV

CAZ089>099-160000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
930 AM PDT MON APR 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
TODAY. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. REFERENCE SFOSPSHNX/
WWUS86 KHNX/ FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS TODAY. REFERENCE SFOWSWHNX
/WWUS46 KHNX/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC
STORM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

DURFEE