Hail in Arkansas, May 3, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE RED RIVER. LOCAL RADARS INDICATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED RETURNS
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MOVING EAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A WELL DEFINED UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE MAY BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS
EVENING...IF THE ASSOCIATED FORCING CAN OVERCOME CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE 800-900MB LAYER WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...FAVORABLE UPGLIDE IN THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT ADDTIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT.

FORECAST PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE TO A LINEARLY ORIENTED MCS BY LATE EVENING.

FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE LOCAL
STORMS FOR MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAKER FORCING MAY LIMIT OVERALL
COVERAGE.

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS APPEAR UNSETTELED.

HRO   59  82  59  80 /  50  40  60  40
LIT   60  83  63  80 /  40  30  60  50
HOT   64  86  65  82 /  50  40  60  30
PBF   64  84  65  81 /  40  30  60  50

.LZK...NONE.

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ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA BORDER
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A MOSTLY DRY DAY
AHEAD.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT. A SYSTEM ALOFT FROM
THE PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT APPEARS THAT LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH ARKANSAS WILL
EXIT THE STATE WITH THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SLIGHTLY WARMER...MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIR WILL BE NOTED. A STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY AND
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD ARKANSAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH SEVERE WEATHER
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY COULD
BE WIDESPREAD. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. PEOPLE ACROSS ARKANSAS SHOULD MONITOR FORECAST
INFORMATION CLOSELY TO KEEP TRACK OF THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE PLAINS WILL STALL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SYSTEMS
WILL CONTINUE ARRIVING FROM THE PLAINS...AND WILL JOIN WITH
THE FRONT TO TRIGGER SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TONIGHT. ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

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